Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

Most expensive Pizza

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I am not long / short bitcoin nor believe in it. Read something interesting.

On 22 May 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz made the first real-world transaction by buying two pizzas in Jacksonville, Florida for 10,000 BTC. That translates to 100 Million USD at CMP of 10,000 USD / Bitcoin. Oops. In 2010 BTC was 0.01 USD/1 cent.

In 2009 Bitcoin had no price. Users were mainly cryptography fans who were sending bitcoins for hobby purposes representing low or no value. In March 2010, user “SmokeTooMuch” auctioned 10,000 BTC for $50 (cumulatively), but no buyer was found.

Here we are poor souls searching 100 companies for one that is worth 50 cents on a dollar, and there was a deal worth 100 Million USD going for 50$ or a pizza.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin

 

 

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Written by amitdipsite

November 29, 2017 at 10:27 am

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36,000 days or 5,000 weeks

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There really isn’t that much time in an ordinary human lifespan, if you’re lucky you will see 5,000 weekends. Yet, greatness can be achieved in that time frame. The whole planet is emptied like an empty rice bowl during dinner and everybody kicked out this sphere, to be replaced by a new set of tourists. God likes eating people as bunny likes eating carrots, to be sarcastic.

I am not sure how many of you have made a list of top 5 things you want in life, and then are actually spending most time on #1. I found that I was/am not. Time has wings indeed, so don’t miss the next flight to the first destination on your priority.

 

 

Written by amitdipsite

November 23, 2017 at 10:19 am

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Lindy Effect of Unilever Nepal

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The Lindy effect is a concept that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. In contrast, living creatures and mechanical things follow a bathtub curve where, after “childhood”, the mortality rate increases with time. Because life expectancy is probabilistically derived, a thing may become extinct before its “expected” survival. In other words, one needs to gauge both the age and “health” of the thing to determine continued survival.

If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life! 

 

 

I wrote about Unilever Nepal at

https://lifeandequities.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/of-monopolies-and-yields/

https://lifeandequities.wordpress.com/2015/08/25/why-india-is-still-expensive-sensex-25000-just-20-down-from-peak/

https://lifeandequities.wordpress.com/2013/12/24/20-year-investment-as-envisaged-in-2013/

Its recent result further re-inforces this effect, while Indian FMCG companies are under pressure from the corporate Baba segment (Ravi Shankar/MSG/Ramdev), this company is going from strength to strength.

FIRST: IT OPERATES ON INFINITE ROE, negative capital. Cash equivalent (115+45) is more than equity (118).

ROE

 

TWO: It pay 100% dividend payout without ROYALTY to Unilever.

THREE: It has monopolistic profit margin, win-win proposition for the country, ethical profile (in the eyes of beholder even if the products are useless), and great growth. This time growth was exceptional because of one-off hit in the previous same quarter, previous year.

Have you seen 25% PAT margin of Unilever or P&G or Gillette anywhere in the world ?

growth_unl_nepal

 

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect, sharesansar.com

Disclosure: Have vested interest in the companies mentioned. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.

http://www.elevendimension-funds.com

Written by amitdipsite

November 21, 2017 at 7:16 pm

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Why frontier markets for investment?

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Same reason as emerging markets are considered attractive over developed markets.

60% Americans invest directly in stocks vs 2-3% in India, latter is considered an “emerging” country for investment.

Those who invest directly in stocks have a Demat account with depository institution like https://nsdl.co.in, NSDL/CSDL in India, http://www.cdbl.com.bd, CDBL in Bangladesh, http://cdcpakistan.com, CDC in Pakistan, https://www.cdsckenya.com , CDSC in Kenya, https://www.cscsnigeriaplc.com CSCS in Nigeria and so on.

In December 2016 Pakistan had around 255,000 Central Depository Company (“CDC”) account holders (0.131% of population), compared to 2 million in Bangladesh (1.3% of population) and 25 million in India (2% of population).

From investment participation by local public, Pakistan is 15 years behind India. That does not mean companies trading on the stock market are very cheap because foreign investment is allowed and foreigners can bid up the prices. But what it does mean is various institutions and industries do not yet exist in such markets.

Written by amitdipsite

November 19, 2017 at 3:55 am

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Startup Nation – Israel

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https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6885191-start-up-nation

Superb book for entrepreneurs. Why Israel produces more startups per capita than any other country. Israeli will start in a new team including military with, “Why are you my manager and I am not”? Challenging authority and established norms at all levels is at the core.

 

Reminds me of a discussion I had with a Sri Lankan doctor in Wellington. He wanted to head back to his home country because there the doctors are worshipped and held on a pedestal, but here the patients challenge and question them.

 

 

Written by amitdipsite

November 17, 2017 at 8:05 pm

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Felt as if reading the 1980s economic situation of India

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This from the Kenyan Magazine Small and Medium Enterprises, September 2017 issue. 

Going back in time to buy Infosys stock, 3000x returns since 1994, may not be possible for mortals but one can try this approach. However, some industries in Kenya are at par with those in India like the Microfinance. 

Written by amitdipsite

November 15, 2017 at 6:57 am

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Accelerating change

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Written by amitdipsite

November 14, 2017 at 10:40 pm

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