Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

Shortest Bear Market

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I always believed a shock of this proportion would take 18 months to heal not just the real economy but also stock indices. The fall of 35% and recovery of 40% back up in the US markets has been the swiftest in a 100 years.

There is so much doubt, disbelief and humility in a lot of market participants including myself as to why Nasdaq is making a new high, number of stocks are at 52 week highs when the world economy is gonna shrink by 5% or thereabouts. This is the biggest shock to the economy in at least five decades.

Do my knowledge the answer is:

– 0% interest rates

– Unlimited QE

– FOMO rally

– Millennials throwing all FED cheque’s into Stocks

The end result not be nice and is likely to lead to yet another economic bubble, but make hay while the sun shines.

It shows the power that is liquidity which has driven market rally in equities whilst the economies contract 5%. All junk bonds, fallen angels, sub prime (name changes every few years) are being purchased by FED.

Imagine we had a series of bad economic news and the economy be contracted by 2% Stock Market would be down 20%. But here we had a terrible news and economy was down over 5% but the stocks are largely back to their former levels in the US.

Written by amitdipsite

June 10, 2020 at 8:35 am

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No more fear

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The fear truly is out of the window. In March 2020 I mentioned Carnival Cruise Lines which has 46% global market share of cruise industry as a worthwhile pick as 12$. The stock has made a good come back and now at 25$ in two months, 100% return. The company would have been the last cruise company standing in the industry. Still over 60% down from its highs of 65$. https://lifeandequities.wordpress.com/2020/03/21/how-to-play-the-comeback-in-equity/

The other trades I mentioned were leveraged ETFs listed in the US, $TPOR $BNKU $FAS $NAIL $DFEN, most of them are up between 50-100% now. I am still long all ETFs in this category. I wish my entire portfolio was in the US market.

 

Written by amitdipsite

June 8, 2020 at 4:28 pm

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How we react

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Funny TikTok Video https://vm.tiktok.com/o2tqaD/

There’s a story of two friends who were walking by the beach and a friend slaps another one so the second one who gets slapped writes on the sand “today my best friend slapped me”. Sometime later the same friend who had slapped saves his friends life while he was drowning this time the second friend etched on a rock “my best friend saved my life”.

We need to be forgetful of the unpleasant experiences and hold on to the good ones. In a way evolution already manages it by ‘rose tinting’ the past.

Another story of Buddha who, while lecturing and providing sermons in a certain city, a young man insults and rebukes that “you’re just a scammer and a hoax trying to take money off people”. Buddha response was, “If you buy a gift for someone and the other person refuses to take it who has to keep the gift?”

In this case it means the gift of being anygry at someone.

Which brings us to the third one from Yogananda, “The faults that you see in others are the ones that you need to correct in yourselves”.

Written by amitdipsite

June 8, 2020 at 8:43 am

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NY Governor

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So refreshing to hear Andrew Cuomo. NY is so lucky to have him

www.youtube.com/watch

https://youtu.be/HvhWFbRqsVs

Written by amitdipsite

June 7, 2020 at 7:05 am

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The un-enlightened rulers

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In the Biggest pandemic in 100 years striking most economic shock over the century, the 50 wealthiest people in America have publicly donated about $1 billion for coronavirus relief — that’s a big number, but it adds up to a very small fraction of their combined net worth: less than 0.1%,

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/how-much-americas-richest-are-donating-for-coronavirus-relief.html

In the big scheme of thing human being continues to evolve and requires to remould the social orders, political structures, the fabric is society and the rulers they choose. With new needs brought about by refinement of human brain the evolutionary force necessitates reshaping of society. Man increasingly requires more sensitive and ordered world unlike the beasts. An absence of action and a sensitive world will lead to more revolutions triggered by evolving human instincts. This is so neatly captured in the few stanzas of Poem by Gopi Krishna in late 1970s. He had a revolution in his own consciousness and started writing in over 12 languages without any learning from books or teachers.

The world condition has come to a pass
Where greatest danger to the human mass
Comes not from natural causes or disease,
But from the leading men who hold the keys
Of power in their weak but ambitious hands,
And can employ the might of powerful lands
To cause death and destruction on a scale
Before which all the powers of language fail.

One of the ways to meet this deadly threat
To safety is for masses not to abet
The men in power in their ambitious aims,
Which would be hard since they propose their names.
Moreover the rulers do not act alone
For many a wealthy and ambitious drone,
Surrounding them, like kites, plans and conspires
To plunge a nation in the awful fires
Of war, which in this era has become
Pure homicidal mass-delirium.

Another way, which is as nature wants
Mankind to do now, like industrious ants,
To have Superior Beings at the head
As rulers, who inspire respect not dread,
Who more in harmony with nature’s plan
Foresee the future of evolving man,
And skilled in state-craft who the two combine
To elevate the mass-mind and refine,
And not, as rulers do now, brutalize
The crowd for but a brief temporal rise,
Heedless of what the next world-war will teach
That man has yet a loftier height to reach.

This is the only way to pull the world
Out of the mess in which it has been hurled
By scholars, priests and rulers all combined,
Lost in the unfathomed mystery of mind,
Not heeding that the evolving human brain
Can ne’er sit idle, but must e’er remain
Alert on ripe occasions to revise
The faulty social orders they devise.

Written by amitdipsite

June 7, 2020 at 6:31 am

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Why USA is BAD

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Police brutality

Floyd’s death video by US Cops (very graphic)

United States has two grave sins that it has not made attempts to resolve, or apologise for, or made attempts to reconcile.

1. Slavery

2. Treatment of native Indians

In New Zealand in Australia you see a very sophisticated, institutionalised and advanced mechanism of reconciliation with native tribes in terms of Seminars, Sorry Day, reconciliation week, certification of private and government organisations as certified for minorities and aboriginal people as Level 1/2/3. Seminars, Discussions of the past atrocities, Apologies or acknowledgement by White folks is openly conducted in front of 100s/1000s employees are done in a corporate setting.

In other words it is mainstream idea to include those left behind, not a side charity where you donate 1% of your wealth.

A person was telling me that in Tradeweb, a US Financial Organisation like any other there are only 3 black people he has seen out of over 1000 employees.

How can the country get ahead when 13% African Americans are left behind.

The US position is by not a long shot unique, New Zealand has 17% Maori population, the native aboriginal owners of the land, many families there have not participated in labour force for 100 plus years or many generations yet there is free schooling and housing for all and a concerted attempt to include them in the current way of life. Alternatives? Ghettos, Drugs, Guns and Violence. Latter is the path USA has chosen for itself rather than upliftment for all. Actually a bit worse, USA has chosen to list Prisons with mostly Latin American and black people on the Stock Exchange. The more inmates the better for shareholders. “Let the shootings begin”, pray the shareholders.

If Floyd’s death was a spark, COVID was the fan and Trump provided Kerosene.

China and Russia have 13% US population that they can leverage for their purposes. Make no mistake, the Cold War is on and Russia may not be an economic power, but it is just as mad today as it was in 1970s. US unfortunately is like a child with no history and a civilisation with only few 100 years of history.

India and China have survived a 1000 cunning’s of time over the Millenia. US may have to cede the mantle of power to Asia over the next 50 years.

I am not sure if realignment of world power is going to go down without a fight as the current world leaders are largely not enlightened and not inclusive for all minorities. You take India, China, Russia or the US. The primary leader of the state is divisive even within their own country so let alone talk about integration with one or more countries outside their border.

I have seen no action by the US Government to reconcile even after Floyd protests. That bodes unwell for US minorities.

The in enlightenment and incompetence is reflected by the use of words like “Super Power” country. Yes you can say I am a mighty earthworm weighing 14 grams compared to normal earthworm weighing 4 grams. But you see how powerful you are? We cannot see planet earth from 1 light year away. Last time I checked the width of ever increasing “known” physical Universe was 93,000,000,000 light years. 93 Billion. So who says they are powerful? What if we stick a 2 km wide comet on earth? Game over. There are millions of such comets in our solar system whose path cannot be predicted because of gravitation of Sun and Jupiter.

There is no way except to wonder in amazement at this spectacle and to think that any person or country is powerful, is diminutive and an insult to your imagination use words like Super Power. Today you are well tomorrow you are under the dust. Today Super power tomorrow a Pariah.

With that said, the best is yet to come. It’s taken quite a while to get rid of apartheid, women to vote or even sign a bank cheque (prior to 1962 in France women could not sign a bank cheque). With the new tools of communication we don’t have to follow what the titular head of the state says, we can choose our own leaders and follow our path. Though, it would help if the leader who takes our economic taxes had a better system in place.

Say no to divisiveness and no to leaders who promote a narrow religion or philosophy.

Written by amitdipsite

June 6, 2020 at 8:33 am

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Why USA is GREAT

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Twitter vs Trump Score 2/0

A private company can slam head of the state.

Written by amitdipsite

May 29, 2020 at 4:12 pm

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CNBC Hosts Roast each other

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Written by amitdipsite

May 29, 2020 at 7:32 am

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Leveraged ETFs

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Some day I intend to write a detailed blog post on this topic of leveraged ETFs. On the 19th of May I mentioned that several leveraged ETFs were beaten down 80% in Transport, Financial, House Builders (https://lifeandequities.wordpress.com/2020/05/19/only-one-trade/). (Some even 95% like Oil, Gas, REITs)

I mentioned 4 ETFs of the 8 attractive, all of them are up 30% since the 19th of May. I strongly feel they all have 50% more to go over the next 3-6 months.

Check the 52 week range of USA House Builders Index ETF 3X -> 98.5$ and 4.7$, so you lose just as fast.

Here are good posts on the topic:

https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/leveraged-etf-myths?post=134876

https://www.thebalance.com/leveraged-etfs-lose-money-357489

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4299701-leveraged-etfs-for-long-term-investing

FASFINANCIALBANKSTRANSPORT

There is no formula but the LONG side leveraged ETFs tend to work in your favour when you more up days than down days. There is volatility drag over the long term.

I have seen that because of swaps/hedging liquidity, and currency hedging issues they don’t work in Emerging Markets, Frontier Markets and they lose value over long term and work only for short term.

Written by amitdipsite

May 27, 2020 at 2:05 pm

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Dr. Fauci convinces Buffett to Sell

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6wjij-0yEQ

Buffett, “I feel extraordinarily good about being able to listen to Dr Fauci whom I had never heard of a year ago. … I do feel that I owe a huge debt of gratitude to Dr. Fauci for educating and informing me.”

Dr. Fauci, IMO is the most pessimistic person in the world. So here is a cartoon dedicated to him.

dr fauci-cartoon

Written by amitdipsite

May 25, 2020 at 5:29 pm

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