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Gold robbery

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Manappuram paid 40 Crores for security guards during June 2017 quarter, this is up more than 10 times compared to previous year, same quarter in the wake of gold theft.

Effectively the cost of doing business has gone up, 2000 crores from the market cap must be shaved off for calculation purposes. i.e. 200+ crores per year on security guards. It translates to 5 Lac INR per branch per year.

Why shouldn’t the management take more technology based approach to counter such threats. They can empty all gold by evening. I though of a design of a vault as below.

It should be a vault which is room within a room within a room. It should run on its own internal battery at the core and get charged rest of the time.

It can contain layers of protections, like poisonous gas (nearly, to paralyse) but not kill. Automatic guns which fire below waist area. Tasers which paralyse the burglars. Loud alarms that can be heard several Kms far. Tracking devices that are not easy to remove within hours. This can all be backed by a set of armoured vans which are not exclusive, i.e. not one night guard per branch.

This is a model that can be applied to many big cities where one guard need not be hired per shop/building but shared armoured guard.

Maybe learning from Chinese, explosion of HIV and other deadly viruses in the vault if not opened properly.

Written by amitdipsite

August 14, 2017 at 11:41 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Intensity by Yogananda

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God is approachable. Talking of Him and listening to His words in the scriptures, thinking of Him, feeling His presence in meditation, you will see that gradually the Unreal becomes real, and this world which you think is real will be seen as unreal.
There is no joy like that realization. There is no use trying to know too much now. How many incarnations would you have to spend to learn all that is written in the book of nature? Millions of lives would not be sufficient. So why bother? All things you will find and understand in God. The masters of India have always said, “First know Him.” Then, whatever you desire to know, He will reveal to you. This is His kingdom; this is His knowledge.

God is eager to bring you to His kingdom, for He craves something too: that you spontaneously seek Him and cling to Him. Otherwise, He would not have created the universe and man. His perfection is not conditioned by this craving; but the
one reason behind His creating us is His desire that we love Him and return to Him. God is Waiting for Your Invitation.

You are not determined enough. As the miser loves money, as the lover loves the beloved, so should you love God; then you will find Him, without fail. It is difficult, but if at
night you sit long in meditation you won’t know time. Even when I don’t get any sleep, I never miss it. When God comes, where is sleep? where is the body? Nothing matters but His intoxicating presence. You read in novels of ideal love, but it is nothing compared to the love of God. Hasten to Him.

I am sure He feels guilty for having created us! Every day I ask Him why He did it. (I talk to Him about anything that comes to my mind. He likes it, that I am “after” Him; He knows His creation is anything but perfect.) The Lord replies that you cannot
make steel until you have made the iron white-hot in fire. It is not meant for harm. Trouble and disease have a lesson for us. Our painful experiences are not meant to destroy us, but to burn out our dross, to hurry us back Home. No one is more
anxious for our release than God.

For good reason you are not allowed to remember your past incarnations. Suppose you have been born ten times. You have therefore had ten mothers. How can you love them all the same? You are meant to learn that behind those ten mothers there is One Mother,- behind all friends, One Friend; behind all fathers, One Father; behind all loves, One Love. How wonderful is that recognition! It is as if you had been playing hide-andseek
in the corridors of incarnations, and then you find Him! When I realized that One Love, I could not contain myself. My mind vanished into the Infinite Kingdom. It is so, even now.
The joy of Spirit is endless.

We don’t say, “Well, I shall find out all about God in the hereafter.” We want to know God now.

Science and religion should go hand in hand. All the results of scientific investigation are definite and are connected by reason, whereas religion is often dogmatic. When Jesus
urged his disciples to have faith, he didn’t mean blind belief. It breaks my heart when I see blind dogmatism, for it is one reason why the majority of people have no real interest in God. Although there are nevertheless many who are interested in God, real seekers are few, because hardly anyone tries to understand his way out of this dream drama. Few of His children appreciate the gifts of the Heavenly Father, and of those who
do, fewer still try deeply or scientifically enough to know Him. Those who want to seek Him earnestly should learn how to do so scientifically.

By Yoga, Religion Can Be Made Scientific

Yoga is definite and scientific. Yoga means union of soul and God, through step-by-step methods with specific and known results. It raises the practice of religion above the differences of dogma. My guru, Sri Yukteswar, extolled Yoga, he did not, however, indicate that realization of God thereby would be immediate. “You have to work hard for it,” he told me. I did, and when the promised results came, I saw that Yoga
was marvelous.

Those who do not give time to their religion cannot expect to know all at once about God and the hereafter. Usually people don’t make the effort, or if they do, the effort is not deep and sincere enough.

Remember, if you don’t find God, you are not making enough effort in your meditation. Should you not find the pearl after one or two divings, don’t blame the ocean. Blame your diving; you are not going deep enough. If you dive really deep you will find the pearl of His presence. Unless we apply definite methods of science in practising religion, it becomes little more than a salve for our conscience. “Oh yes, I go to church every Sunday,” people say; but they don’t know why they go. And once they have said “Amen” after the sermon, they forget all about church until the next Sunday. Isn’t that foolish? If you do not commune with God there, why should you go?

The saints say that if you coax God earnestly enough, you  can see Him. But you have to do it all yourself. It is good to meditate with a few others, but make the supreme effort alone. It is good for your health, your nerves, and your longevity not to mix too much with people. Most of them are thinking only of what you can give them. Hardly anyone thinks of your highest welfare except your spiritual teacher and God. The wise teacher will give you but one instruction: think of God.

If you convince someone that the path of error leads to the valley of death, and that the path of meditation leads to everlasting life, you have given him something of more
value than a million dollars. Money is perishable, but realization of God will go with us beyond the portals of the grave. Therefore whenever I see anyone striving and struggling with great intensity to know God, it gives me great joy.

If you follow the spiritual laws, the result is certain. If the result doesn’t come, find fault with your effort. Intensity in all your religious practices is the only way. Those who don’t
meditate regularly and deeply are restless wherever they do meditate, and give up after a short effort. But if you make a greater effort day by day, the ability to go deep will come. It is foolish to ask, “Will I be able to get into the kingdom of heaven?” There is no
other place you can stay, for that is your real home. You don’t have to earn it. You are already God’s child, made in His image. You have only to tear away the mask of the human being and realize your divine birthright.

Written by amitdipsite

August 14, 2017 at 5:54 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Reality check

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So, I hear people saying bloodshed, bear market, or worse bottom fishing, well the reality says that markets touched an all time high a few weeks back and are down only 4.5% as yet. (32686-31213)/32686 * 100.

Sensex

Whilst technically this isn’t a bear market, what you need to do is the opposite of what they ask you to, in the Zoo, “don’t feed the bear”, in the case of equity bear market, you actually do feed the Bear with more funds, timing may vary coz the Bear will go into hibernation eventually. The other thing you can do is ignore hysteria, ignore looking at your portfolio, news channels, social media, to stay sane. Think long term, think of the companies that will be much much bigger in 3-5 years, absent third world war.

Frothy IPOs in the US like Snap Chat and Blue Apron are down 65% and 55% from the highs a few months back.

You know the Cocktail Theory or the Toilet Theory of stocks ? They are both at an all time high too 😦 indicating chances of more downturn.

Confidence and optimism in the US is at an all time high according to Yale survey. 99-100% institutional and individual investors are optimistic about the returns over the next 1 year.

confidence

People are more leveraged than ever.

margin

Co-incidentally I read this book by Jim Rickards – The Road to Ruin few days back, in his own words the central theme of the book is Ice-nine.

Ice-9 may be familiar to some listeners and readers, maybe not to others, but this is something I borrowed from the novelist Kurt Vonnegut.

He wrote a short novel in the early 1960s called Cat’s Cradle. Some readers may be familiar with it. If not, I recommend a copy. It’s short and hilarious.

My book, on the other hand, is not funny at all. I discuss the end of the financial system and the very real possibility of people losing all their savings. Hopefully, it’s engaging, entertaining and readable, but I can’t honestly say it’s funny. But Kurt Vonnegut’s is, even though he talks about a doomsday machine.

It involves a variation of a water molecule a scientist invented. It was different, a variation of water different in one respect: It melted at 114 degrees Fahrenheit, and it was frozen at room temperature. If one molecule of this unusual water came in contact with a regular molecule of water, the regular molecule would turn to ice-9. This happened over and over again, in geometric progression.

Ice-9 was kept in a vial. But if the vial was opened and one molecule was poured into normal water, all that water would freeze. Then it would spread, and would sweep through the lakes and the rivers and the oceans. And all the water in the world would ultimately freeze.

Of course, everyone on the Planet Earth would die. It was a doomsday machine, a metaphor for nuclear annihilation. This book came out right around the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, so it was quite topical.

In my book, I take that metaphor of ice-9 and apply it to the financial system. The point I make is that one part of the financial system cannot be shut down in isolation. A contagion beginning in one part spreads to the entire system. That’s because the minute one part shuts down, everybody runs for a different part in a quest to get their money back.

It speaks to the best description I’ve ever heard of a financial panic: everybody wants their money back at once.

The process soon grows out of control. Everyone sells stocks, sells bonds, sells real estate, sells everything. They all want their money back at once. Of course, people think they can get their money back. But they can’t. They’ll discover that what they actually have are stocks, bonds, and real estate, and money markets, so called, and they can’t get their money back.

Imagine the money market funds are shut down. No one can get their money out of them. Then everyone runs to the banks to get their money. But the banks are closed. Then, everyone tries to sell their stocks, but the stock market’s shut down. And so on. In other words, the minute one part of the system shuts, all of the demand for liquidity moves to another part. But it dries up. And that part of the system has to be shut that down, too. Soon the entire system is shut down because it’s all so deeply interconnected. That’s where the ice-9 metaphor comes in because it’s not just one water molecule turning to ice. All the water in the world turns to ice because it’s all connected.

On that positive note, Happy investing 🙂

 

 

 

 

Written by amitdipsite

August 12, 2017 at 8:00 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Chinese loan sharks debt collection

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Small businesses in China often borrow money at high interest rates form loan sharks, but recovering debts can be tricky. Some lenders hire thugs to take endebted folks hostage, but now some have turned to hiring women, the disabled, and the elderly, because, apparently, people don’t like aruguing with them.
Over a dozen middle aged women in Central China’s were sentenced up to 11 years in jail for using violence and abuse to force people to repay their debts, according to Chinese media reports.
Debt collectors also hired HIV carriers to help recover money. A 60-year-old man told the Beijing Youth Daily that he always displays his medical record showing he has HIV to intimidate borrowers.

Written by amitdipsite

August 11, 2017 at 11:14 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Ever seen 40% ROE, Debt free Electricity generation company?

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Bangladesh is a power deficit country with 33% per capita power consumption that of India. It experiences load shedding that was experienced in India in 1990s.

To cut the long story, below, short two companies in Bangladesh are: one has some debt, other is debt free.

Khulna Power – 30% ROE, has some debt

http://www.khulnapower.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Annual-Report-2015-16.pdf

United Power – 40% ROE, no debt

http://www.unitedpowerbd.com/

Check a paradise set of financial highlights from a so called defensive utility sector company: United Power http://www.dsebd.org/displayCompany.php?name=UPGDCL

UPL_ROE

You might say, this is masked by increasing equity infusion, the real measure is EPS which is below, 500% EPS jump in 4 years:

EPS

I had bought and sold Khulna Power ~2 years back. One of the risks is disruption by Solar and depleting gas reserves in Bangladesh which can change the profitability equation.

The utility electricity sector in Bangladesh has one National Grid with an installed capacity of 15,379 MW as on February’ 2017. Bangladesh’s energy sector is booming. But still the per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is considered low . Bangladesh has small reserves of oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.

Installed_Capacity

I have not seen such wonderful operational efficiency metrics in any other place in the world.

Written by amitdipsite

August 9, 2017 at 9:36 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Sizzling stocks, damp results

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The sizzling hot Housing finance companies have started to falter. REPCO came with dismal, bordering on bad results for 35 – 40 PE multiple company. 10-12% growth. 3% net npa.

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/b6a8bd7e-aa5c-48a1-8c5b-a0b30018fe3d.pdf

The unproven, ignored 100% Capital Adequacy Ratio micro caps grow faster 40%+, 1.5% Net NPA. In a well sold out house full country like India, these stocks ain’t cheap either, Akme Star Housing.

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/ad8bf703-ff84-44d4-aab1-74990a119b46.pdf

And I believe a multi year bull run in Manappuram and Muthoot will start now, despite Manappuram having delivered 4-5 bags in the recent 12-15 months. The foundations are very strong, branch network pan India, and new product lines, digitisation and existing client base and 25-26% CAR adds icing to this cake. There will be a time with they may turn mice again, but that does not seem anytime close. Check this presentation from Muthoot.

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/6b16bfe9-6495-475b-92ce-28621315bf59.pdf

Disclosure: Have vested interest in the companies mentioned. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.

http://www.elevendimension-funds.com

Written by amitdipsite

August 9, 2017 at 6:03 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Great not Big 2

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Written by amitdipsite

August 8, 2017 at 9:47 am

Posted in Uncategorized