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A stockbroker urged me to buy a stock that would triple its value every year. I told him, “At my age, I don’t even buy green bananas.”
Please God, let me prove that winning the lottery won’t spoil me.
Money doesn’t make you happy. I now have $500 million but I was just as happy when I had $480 million. – Arnold Schwarzenegger
The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters.
If at first you don’t succeed . . . so much for skydiving.
How is it one careless match can start a forest fire, but it takes a whole box to start a campfire?
How is it that one accidental rape in a bollywood movie results in conception, yet months of planning by the couples does not ?
My mother never saw the irony in calling me a son-of-a-bitch. – Jack Nicholson
Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go. – Oscar Wilde
I couldn’t repair your brakes, so I made your horn louder.
I intend to live forever. So far, so good.
We’ve all heard that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters will eventually reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the Internet, we know this is not true.
Why didn’t Noah swat those two mosquitoes?
When you go into court you are putting your fate into the hands of twelve people who weren’t smart enough to get out of jury duty.
Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.
Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a refund from the Income Tax Office/IRS, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.
The shelf life of some of the reports that MOSL has written is quite good, years to decades, so I recommend reading those thematic reports such as:
Value Migration thematic report (100 page but worth reading cover to cover)
Yet to read other thematic ones like Telecom, Light Electrical, GST, Capital Goods, Financials etc.
Meanwhile the stocks are hitting new highs and now India looks good from top-down (2000 USD to 40,000 USD per capita potential perspective) and not so much bottoms-up, but certainly there will be few multibaggers now and then. Which 50 would they be out of 6000 listed companies, the PE ratios indicate that its a case of looking through rose coloured tinted glasses, or falling in love with the ugliest girl. Eg: Gruh Home Finance deemed to be the most valued company (P/B or P/E) due to its pedigree, potential/market opportunity has been put to shame by a rather B/C grade company at 100 P/E multiple SRG Housing Finance (both BSE listed).
I did not have any special skill other than noticing 100% CAR in Akme Star Housing and P/E of ~13, and clean promoters, in November 2016, since then in the recent 120 days, the stock has tripled from 20 Rs to 60 Rs.
So, in my opinion, currently Top-Down is attractive but Bottoms-Up is ugly 🙂
Disclosure: Invested in companies mentioned. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.
Not that buy-and-hold always works, but even if when it does, more than half the times it asks you to be calm through the stomach churning volatility.
See the Apple and Amazon drawdowns mentioned here and at numerous other places
I have been holding Muthoot Capital for over five years, and below are the lows and highs over the previous five years.
65 – 261 – 131 – 330 – 202 – 360
This stock has fallen ~50% more than twice in just five years. In fact, after kissing 261 on the 23rd of October 2014, it not only collapsed by 50%, but took another two years until October 2016 to regain lost ground and made a new high at ~330. Only when the investors sighed a relief, it collapsed once again to 202, post demonetization.
So, the conclusion is that finance stocks are more volatile, and sometimes it pays to go into hibernation as far as the stock prices are concerned and focus on paying attention (including making money) to other things.