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Life is so easy

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Written by amitdipsite

June 26, 2017 at 6:56 pm

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For beginners | Stock market losses

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June 26, 2017 at 12:55 pm

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Excerpt from Q2 2017 Eleven Dimensions letter

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June 24, 2017 at 8:52 pm

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India: 20% of world population yet no large company so far

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Written by amitdipsite

June 24, 2017 at 2:51 am

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Solar – disruption is the established order

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It costs 3X to set up solar farm in the US than China, and hence not a mainstream news item today.

https://perspicacity.xyz/2017/02/13/experts-have-massively-underestimated-solar-why-solar-part-1/

Solar has reached the tipping where demand is no longer sustained by  government fiat, where investment will soon be an order of magnitude larger than in the past.

https://perspicacity.xyz/2017/02/13/how-solar-progress-progresses-solar-part-2/

Theodore Wright, at war

We won because we smothered the enemy in an avalanche of production, the like of which he had never seen, nor dreamed possible.

https://perspicacity.xyz/2017/02/13/the-world-at-a-tipping-point-solar-part-3/

Beliefs also have a role in disruption along with science and economics:

Doubt will hold back the pace of technological change, as much as science or economics.  In war, there was no uncertainty of whether production would be procured.  The only focus was how to make more, faster.

The economic curves have crossed each other this year for Solar in Australia, Chile and Middle East:

Solar

Not that there will not be casualties, in fact expect more casualties as the operators starts under pricing for market share gains. The biggest new items after 10 – 20 years might be solar eclipses in places where battery storage systems are not in play, as most of the power will be generated by solar.

Lets watch how this game unfolds.

Written by amitdipsite

June 22, 2017 at 7:21 pm

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Sense of urgency

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There is a story in India of the person who had been trying to find God for many years, and was told by his mentor that the only way to find God is to long for him as a dying man yearns for breath when drowning.

Yogananda adds, You must put so much power, and decide to find God tonight right now, but wait without frustration, if He does not show up / you don’t transcend beyond thoughts and intellect.

Imagine you are sitting in a cinema hall where there was a sudden fire, how would you react, or in case someone fired a bullet on your leg ? You’re not going to find the reasons for fire / motive of the shooter, you’ll simply take the first exit out of the burning hall, or show up at hospital emergency to get out of that situation, so you could live.

Similarly, if one has the interest in going beyond beliefs and faith, one must try relentlessly to merge into the infinite current.

One reason is elucidated by this simple sentence from Buddha, “You must be nice to others because in one past life or another you had been close to that person”. Bewildering considering how many trillions of zillions of souls there are in the Universe. There is almost no role that we have not had in the past, beggar, man, woman, mistress, king, queen, farmer, you name it. The goal of cosmic consciousness is suitable for those who’d rather exit this cycle, this means not sacrificing anything including money, fame, wine except a few minutes a day.

Yet, other than those who became saints, that sense of urgency is amiss from nearly all.

Written by amitdipsite

June 22, 2017 at 6:23 am

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Solar Models

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As solar replaces the conventional forms of energy production and various models come forth and the scale is reached to say 2% household rooftop solars, the next business model ripe will be an online exchange that allows buying/selling solar to any company.

Regulatory work is required that makes the infrastructure independent of the company so that people are free to buy/sell solar to whomsover they want online, and switch with some lock-ins, say 1 year/2 years/6 months etc.

India being abundant in solar, its a matter of time before this takes off. The companies that will be interesting will be getting their hands dirty and not into research, as nobody can predict the Intel of PV panels, Chinese with un-business like 50 Billion USD investment can cause damage to all and sundry. So, the companies should be service focussed on the ground with a lot of physical work, less research activity.

This is exciting for India though 10 years away to reach an impactful scale, coupled with EVs which will make the currency even stronger, given no need to import oil.

What will really take this solar thing off is the price sensitive mindset of Asians, and given the option of Zero capital layout but an agreement to buy power from the solar rooftop installer at a rate (lower than current electricity rate). Plus the company that provided commercial financing for the solar panel installation, will also be a winner (at least until the loan book seasons :))

The bottom line is 1.3 Billion people do not have access to electricity. The main constraint is funding ATM. Now that Solar does not require massive infrastructure, or does not even need to be grid-connected, a small ecosystem can be created by financing model with no upfront payment as long as the ability to buy power exists. Opportunities galore.

Solar modelsSolar models 2

 

Solar models 3Solar models 4

 

References (nice concise, others meaty reads):

http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/presentation-21102014/Business-models-for-Solar-Park_PwC.pdf

http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/intranet/ExCo/IEA-PVPS_Task_9_-_Innovative_PV_Business_Models_for_Emerging_Regions.pdf

http://meragaopower.com

http://ghampower.com/

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/42304.pdf

 

 

Written by amitdipsite

June 20, 2017 at 5:28 am

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