Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

10x in 10 years

with one comment

A number of investors including myself (and Ramdeo Agarwal  mentioned in a couple of interviews) aim for a 10X in 10 years.

This is quite a tall order in any market. Passive investing reached maniacal proportions, with ETF market aggregating nearly 10 Trillion USD in 2018. 2018 has been negative for most asset classes.

There will have to be a reset of funds flow because the previous 10 years were aided by PE expansion.

Sensex India was trading at 1000 Levels in 1990, going by the 10X in 10 years, Sensex will have to be 1000,000 by 2020. (10,000 in 2000, 100,000 in 2010, 1000,000 in 2020).

No index is able to deliver such returns over the long term period. Few lucky companies, whose management also are not aware, deliver such outsized returns. Bill Gates thought that definition of success will be, having a company with 30-50 employees in one of the interviews.

Sensex India delivered 9% CAGR in the recent 4 years, starting 1 Jan 2015 from 27K to 35K today. Asking for 10X every decade requires more than hard work.

sensex

The best industries that are likely to generate maximum wealth, in my opinion, will be software, robotics, medicine and financial. That, however does not imply the best performing stocks will necessarily be from the above sectors.

I have tried to acquire equities and held stocks (and still holding) with an expectation that they could be 100X in 25 years, but its much worse growth rate (20%  CAGR)  in comparison to equities that could double in 3 years (26% CAGR). Which of the two groups is more appealing to me in any particular year depends on an equation comprising temperature in Timbuktu, wind speed in Sahara desert and humidity in Malaysia.

 

http://www.elevendimension-funds.com/

http://www.equityadviser.in/

Please do your own due diligence and consult your investment adviser.

Written by amitdipsite

December 23, 2018 at 5:25 am

Posted in Uncategorized

One Response

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. 10x in 10x type of returns for a portfolio of stocks will require hugely inefficient markets – unlikely! There could of course be single stocks that deliver those returns and more over that time frame.

    gokulram arunasalam

    December 31, 2018 at 1:42 pm


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: