Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

Microfinance / NBFC / Gold / Real Estate

with 5 comments

Market hates uncertainty (group think). Markets cannot do 3rd level thinking in a group, that is the reason why nobody experience enlightenment in a group, or re-discovers laws of physics in a group. Market cannot differentiate between risk and uncertainty.

You have to lock yourself up and think through alone.

All the media and experienced investors in India seem to have thrown in the towel on the above sectors. I find the above four sectors attractive beyond end.

I am accumulating all listed MFIs (except Arman Finance and except Capital Trust), most NBFCs (you may call falling knife). And the next sector that are very attractive to me (for 3-5 years) are Gold Jewellers and after that real estate companies.

Organised MFI competitors will be wiped out.

People will have to hoard gold and / or real estate long term (USD has no value either).

People with black money have been hit one time, they will not be hit again, in this generation.

Once you think though that for few weeks, you will see that you are smart and I am right🙂

Disclosure: Invested.

Written by amitdipsite

November 11, 2016 at 7:07 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

5 Responses

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  1. 1. Why do you dislike Arman Finance? I hold it. 2. “Organised MFI competitors will be wiped out.” Why would you accumulate listed MFIs if they are going to be wiped out? You mean unorganized will be wiped out, because all their money is seized?

    On Fri, Nov 11, 2016 at 11:09 AM, Views on Life & on Equity Investing wrote:

    > amitdipsite posted: “Market hates uncertainty (group think). Markets > cannot do 3rd level thinking in a group, that is the reason why nobody > experience enlightenment in a group, or re-discovers laws of physics in a > group. Market cannot differentiate between risk and uncertaint” >

    myprasanna

    November 11, 2016 at 7:16 pm

    • Hey Prasanna,

      1. No negative known about Arman. More stronger management teams and bigger size is preference, 4-5 others are enough to get an exposure.
      2. Organised MFI’s ‘competitors’ will be wiped out, as they pay no tax, and now will not have the systems in place overnight to complete with Organised MFIs. So, market shares gains will go to organised after this one month of pain.

      amitdipsite

      November 11, 2016 at 7:49 pm

  2. Great results by Muthoot Finance declared on 11th November, first time in five years the company is guiding 15-20% AUM growth

    http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/0591550A_3BC6_41D1_8B22_FC716B59DF99_160018.pdf

    amitdipsite

    November 12, 2016 at 12:55 am

  3. Hi Amit,

    Thanks for writing on Demonetisation, MFI, NBFCs, Gold, Real estate at right time. I too overjoyed after hearing the Demonetisation of 500 and 1000 Rs notes on day1. As the days passed by, feeling the heat now.

    Coming to the point, Initially i thought the Demonetisation will wipe out the local money lenders and direct beneficiaries would be MFIs.

    The way the Govt/RBI handling the currency exchange process is inefficient and disruptive. No disbursement of loan is expected for next few weeks since MFIs distribute the unsecured loan by cash and this is expected. Now if the situation continuous for few more weeks then probability of loan defaulters might rise significantly which might affect MFIs badly and might cause NPA to raise. this is the real concern.

    Just wanted to know the reasons you are bullish on MFIs. Am i missing anything to understand ?

    Regards, Veerendra

    On Sat, Nov 12, 2016 at 12:39 AM, Views on Life & on Equity Investing wrote:

    > amitdipsite posted: “Market hates uncertainty (group think). Markets > cannot do 3rd level thinking in a group, that is the reason why nobody > experience enlightenment in a group, or re-discovers laws of physics in a > group. Market cannot differentiate between risk and uncertaint” >

    Veerendra Gowda

    November 13, 2016 at 5:41 pm

    • You are right, might pay to wait for them to make a bottom. I meant good only for long term not next 3-6 months. Cheers

      amitdipsite

      November 13, 2016 at 6:48 pm


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