Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

Top Brands in Nigeria

with 17 comments


Feeling like I’ve never been this lucky before since 2009, to have found three back to back bear markets. Generally staying in a single market takes 7-8 years of patience to find the next bull market eg: 1992, 2000, 2007, 2014 in India. But global investing opens the vistas for more frequent bear markets. Second opportunity afforded is going back to 1970s in 2014. 

Disclosure: Vested interest in positions discussed. Views are personal notions and do not represent any organisation or company. I am not an investment adviser. Investment in stock market can (and many a times do) result in loss of principal capital.


http://www.elevendimension-funds.com

Written by amitdipsite

October 20, 2014 at 11:06 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

17 Responses

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  1. Flipkart, Baidu, Amazon business models are real. However, valuations are streched in India. Even second order effects are over priced like Blue Dart 99 PE ratio.

    Companies in other parts of the world with better market shares than Blue Dart India are priced reasonably, very much so, ( value investors would say “priced like dirt” and do backflips actually). Expecting to make 50+ baggers in them over next decade.
    ——————————————————————-
    Rocket Internet, biggest incubator has lukewarm IPO

    https://www.rocket-internet.com/companies

    https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/technology/25172716/germanys-rocket-internet-has-lukewarm-ipo/

    ——————————————————————-

    Rocket and its main investor Kinnevik owns a few properties on internet which I could kill for with #2, #4 or #7 ranking in some emerging countries like Nigeria, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka. Nobody know this right now other than handful of people. But each of those tiny companies will be prices at 2 Billion USD valuation.

    Kinnevik owns #1 and #2 online marketplace in Nigeria – a silent Monopoly

    https://www.google.com/finance?q=OTCMKTS%3AKINNF&ei=JvhHVJjNN4rckgXL9oDIBg

    Very inspiring story
    ——————————————————————-

    Amit Arora

    October 22, 2014 at 6:42 pm

  2. Completed 30 bagger in WIM PLAST on BSE India, Current Market Price 1500

    Amit Arora

    October 22, 2014 at 6:46 pm

  3. Nigerian currency is apparently 10-15% cheaper in grey market. Central bank governor being pushed out was a clear -ve and apparently the current President remains the most popular even with the mess.

    Unknown

    October 28, 2014 at 4:59 pm

  4. Nice post on C H Robinson (US)

    http://punchcardblog.wordpress.com/2014/10/31/c-h-robinson-and-two-sided-markets/

    Nigeria offers some compelling opportunities, will share soon.

    Kovai Medical Centre Hospital (India) continues to compound, is a well managed hospital.

    Amit Arora

    November 1, 2014 at 3:05 am

  5. Hi Amit, I have contacted banks they are telling me that only Indians who have settled abroad can invest in Bangladesh, can you please guide me how can I invest in Bangladesh which bank to approach am an Indian resident, thanks shailesh

    hrithik

    November 1, 2014 at 11:29 am

  6. Which Bank is providing this information ? I would like to know, pleas paste the response of the bank in comments along with email of person who provided this mis-information. I will write to Bank Chairman.

    Any Citizen of any country living in any country can invest in Bangladesh. A Nigerian living in Somalia, or Indian living in India or Russian living in Zimbabwe can invest.

    I've already answered that numerous times, if you care to read previous posts.

    Check this link

    goo.gl/nucivh

    http://dsebd.org/pdf/facilities%20for%20for%20foreign%20investors.pdf

    Amit Arora

    November 2, 2014 at 12:31 am

  7. It has paid to be with non-high-quality ideas in the previous 12 months in India, been significantly more rewarding with second line companies.

    52 week returns:

    HDFC Bank – 50%
    Page Industries – 100%
    Gruh Finance – 100%
    Unilever – 50%
    Nestle – 40%

    Second line companies that I invested/still invested in:

    Atul Auto: 250%
    Kitex: 300% (now sold)
    RS Software: 500% (now sold)
    Gulshan Polyols: 400%
    Superhouse: 400%
    Acrysil: 600%
    Kovai Medical: 300%
    Manappuram – 100%
    Nilkamal – 200%
    Wim Plast – 450%
    Poddar Developers – 300% (80% sold out)
    Orient Beverages: 600%
    TV Today: 200%
    Cera: 300%
    Linc Pens: 400%
    Bajaj Finance: 125%

    Misses all sold out:
    Omnitex
    Photoquip
    Zylog – bought @ 70, sold @ 52
    Vikas WSP – bought @ 70, sold @ 30

    So much ado for wide moat investing !

    Suddenly you have now Unileveresqe like opportunities in other emerging markets at mid cap valuations and second line companies in India for the price of Nestle

    Amit Arora

    November 2, 2014 at 2:12 am

  8. There is a correction above, Poddar Developers 52 week high low is 80 – 880 which is 1000%

    Amit Arora

    November 2, 2014 at 2:15 am

  9. Dear Amit,

    Can you tell the reasoning for selling Kitex.

    5 years from now,it must be doing 1700-2000cr revenue post merger with Kitex children ware.Factoring margin contraction 200cr net profit achievable easily.
    At 30 PE it can be a 3 bagger in 5 years,30 trailing PE is humble valuation for a world leader.Jocky of the world enjoys more than 45pe.

    shanid

    November 4, 2014 at 8:45 pm

  10. Dear Shanid

    It may continue to do well. Eclerx, Kitex, Mayur Uniquoter may be leaders but have client concentration risk. In these instances I would not pay 30 times earnings, I am generally out by 20 times earnings if more attractive opportunities exist in other parts of the world.

    If one is forced to stay invested in India, then maybe one could hold.

    All the best

    Amit Arora

    November 4, 2014 at 10:40 pm

  11. Dear Amit,

    What is your call on RS Software at current levels. As you already sold your holdings, would be great if you could please advise your views on this scrip. I have entered at 750 and wondering what to do now, whether to hold it for long term or to exit now.

    Your suggestions would be highly appreciated.

    Thanks and regards,
    Naresh

    Naresh D

    November 5, 2014 at 12:27 pm

  12. Dear Naresh

    No idea about RS Software. I bought it at 2 PE multiple @ 60 Rs. Invest overseas.

    Thank you

    Amit Arora

    November 5, 2014 at 8:23 pm

  13. I am not recommending investing in India at this stage. If I did not have family in India, I would be out of it completely from Investment perspective. To make it worthwhile, C grade companies like RS Software need to be bought between 2-4 times earnings, not 12-20 times. Also, I am myself not buying India, so would be misleading you to buy anything in India. If Hindustan Unilever falls to 100 Rs, you will probably be not looking at RS Software, that is my condition.

    All the best

    Amit Arora

    November 5, 2014 at 10:26 pm

  14. Just my Opinion….not trying to contradict your view

    As per my knowledge, Warren Buffet has major investment in US and China and I suppose he is continuing because he might be assured of getting 15-20% return YOY in long term.
    Still, 75%+ of innovation/patents every year are filed from US, China, India and Japan.

    More than 60% of countries in this world directly or indirectly is involve in war. Doesn't make sense to invest in a country whose DNA is not suppose to rule the world. That is why it still makes sense for stalwarts to invest in US and China. They expand….

    Now India has a DNA to rule the world, it makes sense to invest in India.

    It would just take a month or a year to ruin a economy of any poor country if any superpower country find its strategic benefit for its own. e.g. how Turkey and Iran going as of now.

    Could give more points like these..but they speak my opinion.

    Regards
    Amit

    Amit

    November 9, 2014 at 10:28 am

  15. Thanks for your opinion Amit, quite right in your opinion.

    Mr Buffett earned in single digits in the past 15 year due to his Phobia of India but we know most retail investors earned 20-40% cagr in India in past 15 years.

    One example in life if Mr Buffett is selling partnership, closing it, refunding monies, and staying out of stock market between 1969-1974. As I cannot practice staying out yet…the greener pastures elsewhere.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    November 9, 2014 at 7:01 pm


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