Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

Replicate and Imitate

with 15 comments

What one man can do, so can another, what has been accomplished in a country can be in another. It may provide a great sense of achievement and satisfaction at having composed a new song, solved a maths problem or devising a new contraption or even setting up a new institution.

For the investor however, wise men admonish against seeking thrills and adventure in capital market land. There is no need to feel ashamed at being an ape, lack of originality isn’t a sin or cowardice. Welcome to the industry where wimps and copycats are well rewarded.


Simply apply the developing country formula (potential of greater realisation of human creativity as order and civil liberty rights are restored) and mix a whiff of MNC concoction for minority investor friendliness (corporate governance + high dividend payout + free cash flows + market leadership)  and you  have a successful recipe. Simple as that.

There are a large number of bargains in Next Eleven despite the recent sensational performance. It may feel we have missed the bus but I believe the real money is yet to be made. Few companies in Nigeria fit the wealth creation bucket categorized above. There are only two problems with this formula, a) Interference throws a spanner in compounding, sit for decade/s, it asks you to do nothing, read no financial news, watch no tv channel, wistfully hold securities for 10 years or longer, just get rich by doing nothing, better find some hobbies other than investment to engage your mind in b) what to do with the excess returns.

Pasting charts of some of the stocks I missed in Nigeria (A mistake I hope to fix in coming weeks and months) followed by a couple that I do own that fit boring formula of do-nothing–cowardly-capitalist-sit-on-couch-for-decades. My bias should be understandable. Long all stocks. Focus on the Green or Red percentage returned per annum, then compare against BSE SENSEX, DOW or FTSE if you wish.



PEPSI COLA

Previously mentioned several times CROWN PAINTS KENYA & GSK BANGLADESH.

CROWN PAINTS KENYA

GSK BANGLADESH 100% return this year, 1200% in this decade









Written by amitdipsite

March 22, 2014 at 9:56 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

15 Responses

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  1. Astral Polytechnik mentioned here in 2011 after delivering 8 bagger (www.multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2011/07/matter-of-choice.html
    ) is now trading above PE multiple of GSK Bangladesh, Pepsi Nigeria, Cadbury Nigeria, GSK Nigeria valuations. Makes for an easy choice to switch money.

    Amit Arora

    March 27, 2014 at 6:14 am

  2. Previously mentioned Reckitt Benckiser Bangladesh touched 2000 BDT (100% up in a single day today) on 40 BDT dividend

    http://www.dsebd.org/companyGraph/cp/two_years_graph/companygraph-3.php?company=reckittben

    Imagine the price of Unilever Nepal (800 Rs dividend) available for only 11,000 Rs once FII investment is allowed.

    Amit Arora

    April 8, 2014 at 8:13 am

  3. Unilever Ghana is now completely re-rated at 80 PE multiple and 5 times annual revenues

    http://www.gse.com.gh/index1.php?linkid=46

    Amit Arora

    April 12, 2014 at 2:21 am

  4. Bata Bangladesh returns 100% in 12 months, stock re-rated to 20 PE now.

    http://www.dsebd.org/companyGraph/cp/two_years_graph/companygraph-3.php?company=batashoe

    http://www.bralirwa.com a 75% subsidiary of Heineken and EXCLUSIVE franchise holder for COCA COLA can grow in teens. Debt Free available at 20 PE. Anyone in the world can invest freely and legally. Company has 95% market share in brewery and 99% in soft drinks in Rwanda. Though operating in a free market you can call that MONOPOLY gusher business.

    Mentioned this opportunity earlier:

    http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2013/12/multigenerational-investing-idea-4-and.html

    Disc: Not invested just yet in BRALIRWA. Chasing 20%+ growth

    Amit Arora

    April 12, 2014 at 11:56 pm

  5. Go for companies with increasing dividend payouts,

    As is oft quoted, “Profit is an Opinion Cash is the King” but Dividend is the real thing.

    90% of corporate profits are taken away and lost to competitive forces.

    Maybe also a function of getting older and needing stable dividend income.

    A friend suggested MARICO Bangladesh which I did not buy, 400% returns this year on increased dividend payouts

    http://www.dsebd.org/companyGraph/cp/yearly/companygraph.php?company=MARICO

    Amit Arora

    April 23, 2014 at 8:58 am

  6. Dear Amit,

    Any idea about investing in Egypt.
    Is it possible for outsiders to invest in that country.

    regards,
    Shanid V H

    shanid

    April 24, 2014 at 3:30 pm

  7. Dear Shanid,

    Don't know the answer to that. Try shortlisting brokers from this list and email a few of best ones.

    Which opportunities are compelling you there ?

    Thanks

    website
    http://www.arqaamcapital.com
    http://www.metrobrokerage.com

    http://www.salambrk.com
    http://www.acumenholding.com

    http://www.alahramsecurities.com
    http://www.al-amaleka.com

    http://www.almadinabrokers.com
    http://www.almanarsecurities.com
    http://www.alnoran.com

    http://www.al-rowad.net
    http://www.shbegypt.com
    http://www.alex-stocks.com

    http://WWW.HELALSAUDI.COM

    http://www.aljouhara.com
    http://www.amanse.com
    http://www.aaisecurities.com
    http://WWW.ARABFINANCE.COM
    http://www.aolbeg.com

    http://www.barkasb.com
    http://WWW.BELTONEFINANCIAL.COM
    http://www.beltonefinancial.com
    http://www.blomegyptsecurities.com
    http://www.brokerseg.com
    http://www.cairocapitalgroup.com

    http://www.csbegypt.com
    http://www.csbcbrokers.com
    http://www.citytradegroup.com
    http://www.cibcegypt.com
    http://www.continentalst.com
    http://www.correct-line.com
    http://www.counselsecurities.com
    http://www.d-securities.com
    http://www.eg-brok.com

    http://www.inertiainvest.com
    http://www.egypt-stocks.com
    http://www.eac-finance.com

    http://www.egsbrokers.com
    http://www.egksco.com
    http://www.elalamia4brokerage.com

    http://www.elhorreyabrokerage.com

    http://www.khaligiabrokerage.com
    http://www.el-marwabrokerage.com
    http://www.oroubaonline.com

    http://www.ta-inv.com

    http://www.moqattam.net
    http://www.lsbrokerage.com
    http://www.efg-hermes.com

    http://www.globalcapitaleg.com

    goldenhand-co.com
    http://www.golden-share.com
    http://www.goldenway.com
    http://www.grandinvestment.net
    http://www.guarantee-capital.com
    http://www.habrokerage.com
    http://www.hc-si.com
    http://www.helwanbb.com
    http://www.efg-hermes.com
    http://www.honest-eg.com

    http://www.horizon-brokerage.com

    http://www.ifaegypt.com
    http://www.ibgstocbrokers.com
    http://www.ifs-egypt.com
    http://www.jaziracapital.com
    http://www.leadersbrokerage.com

    http://www.luxorsb.com

    http://www.mahroosa.com
    http://www.mashreqtrade.com
    http://www.mastersbr.com
    http://www.bahrmotawaset.com
    http://www.mega-investments.com

    http://www.miragebrokerage.net
    http://www.mubashertrade.com.eg
    http://www.naeemonline.com
    http://www.namaaegypt.com
    http://www.ahlysec.com

    http://www.okazinvest.com
    http://www.optima-eg.com
    www. osoolesb.com

    http://www.pharosholding.com
    http://www.pioneerssecurities.com
    http://www.premiere-securities.com
    http://www.primegroup.org
    http://www.prizma-securities.com

    http://www.pyramidscapital.com
    http://www.delta-rasmala.com
    http://www.regentsecurities.com.eg
    http://www.bankersgroup.org

    http://www.sambatadawol.com
    http://www.saudiegyptian.com
    http://www.shuaasecurities.com
    http://www.sigma-capital.com
    http://www.solidairesb.com
    http://www.standardbr.com

    http://WWW.TEAM-STOCK.COM
    http://WWW.FABROKERAGE.COM
    http://www.therootsbh.com
    http://www.3way-finance.com

    http://www.trendeg.com
    http://www.tripleasecurities.com

    www. Tycoonsecurities.com
    http://www.ubcbrokerage.com
    http://www.univse.com

    http://www.wataniabrokers.net
    http://www.watheeqa.com.eg
    http://www.wedianegypt.com
    http://www.yasminbrokerage.com

    Amit Arora

    April 24, 2014 at 9:06 pm

  8. Nice article on behavioural finance

    http://blog.kissmetrics.com/a-total-steal/

    Amit Arora

    April 25, 2014 at 7:24 am

  9. Hi, I have worked based Positive Cash Flow, Growth, Dividends and ROE with less D/E(0.5). Below are my initial picks. need your comments and valuable insights. (Parallely working on Account opening process)

    PIRAMAL GLASS CEYLON PLC 3.8
    CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC 268
    DISTILLERIES COMPANY OF SRI LANKA PLC 205
    CEYLON TOBACCO COMPANY PLC 1100
    Dipped Products PLC 89.1
    Ceylon Tea Services PLC 693
    Kelani Tyres PLC 58.5
    Union Chemicals 499

    Karthikraja K

    April 25, 2014 at 5:46 pm

  10. Dear Karthik

    I have not yet invested in Sri Lanka, will check these out

    Thanks

    Amit Arora

    April 25, 2014 at 9:38 pm

  11. Amit ..

    Do you still track infinite comp. and remain invested in it? I believe it is well positioned now to deliver 150-200% in FY15. Their margins should be back to normal levels post their investments in this FY14. should do nearly 44-46 rs eps in fy15

    Mads

    April 26, 2014 at 6:23 pm

  12. Hiya

    Have dropped Infinite

    Good luck with your holding

    Amit Arora

    May 2, 2014 at 5:18 am

  13. Phenonomenal returns in Cera, glad to have bought back Cera at 150 Rs in 2010, sold at 30 Rs in 2009.

    http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.com/2010/10/cera-sanitary-is-buy.html

    Amit Arora

    May 2, 2014 at 9:34 am

  14. I am very interested in understanding the housing finance industry globally. Most research reports cite US, UK, Denmark, western Europe's Mortgage to GDP ratio between 80-100% and India's 7% which is considered sacrosanct to go up as country develops, therefore the bright prospects.

    In some countries like Indonesia, Brazil more economically developed than India those ratios are lower.

    An interesting insight in the report into the factors influencing the size of Mortgage market:

    Ease of registering property
    Depth of financial markets
    Legal Rights of borrowers and lenders
    Access to Credit information

    http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2012/pdf/warnock-warnock.pdf

    Amit Arora

    May 3, 2014 at 8:16 am

  15. Amit,
    Can we still invest in the above companies in the chart mentioned, or has it topped out?

    Thanks,
    Ramki

    Ramki067

    May 7, 2014 at 6:33 am


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