Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

When Statistics Lie

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Saw today a front page of report titled Motilal Wealth Creation Study. An abnormal amount
of national time and energy is spent on analyzing past successful stocks and funds.

I had recommended TTK Prestige in 2009 at 150 Rs here (not that I am always correct) and then again in 2012 downgraded to sell at 3200 Rs here and choose RS Software at 45 Rs instead. My argument was was that TTK Prestige would have to reach 12,000 Rs to deliver 3 bags and RS Software would have to rise from 45 Rs to 180 Rs.

Since 2010 songs in praise of TTK were penned and reached a deafening resonance by 2012.
Unfortunately, eulogies were written for winning stocks but investor continued to be deluded in chase of 95% CAGR. 
So called Loser Stock returns 3 bags

Super Hero returns single digit returns

 Alpha returns are unlikely to be made where the puck has already been.

Written by amitdipsite

December 17, 2013 at 6:11 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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