Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

When Moat is not enough

with 91 comments

True, when moat, float or neighbour’s goat is not enough.

Investing in stock implies wresting money from others in a capitalistic society. Or as Charlie Munger calls, “being rats in another persons’ granary”.

Nepotism and Monopolies which stifle the life of a thriving and creative society are actually great friends of investors. I am not really proud of it but then I am not the prime minister right ! I am an average Joe who has to make ends meet and earn the hard way for retirement.

Bajaj Scooters did not build its foundation without a stranglehold of monopoly during licence raj for over 30 years; those were the days when waiting period ran into years for an obsolete phone or two wheeler in India.

Monopoly sounds like a great idea, however, there are instances when it does not work in an investor’s favour despite investments’ monopolistic traits. That is when society at large rests on the laurels of ancients who invented something thousands of years back, gives into moral and economic debasement, and when trust is breached. Greece situation is not very different from Indian one, Greece adore the inventions of the past and Indians may hold notion-of-feeling-of-being-spiritual and old literature as their treasure. I know in between these blanket generalizations there is a tiny spectrum of people who are otherwise.

OPAP (http://opap.gr/) is a Greek monopoly with an exclusive license for soccer betting until 2020 and lottery license until 2030. Greece Govt. has blocked all rulings of EU to open up the market. In fact Govt. routinely blocks websites to prevent citizens from participating in any gambling activity that is not run by OPAP in geography of Greece.

When purchasing power has been hit by people earning 60,000 Euro per annum and not producing output worth 10,000 Euro, then monopolies and conjointly buy-and-hold fails.

https://www.google.com/search?q=greece+monopoly+opap

My search is on for investment in another morally corrupt monopolistic venture.

Written by amitdipsite

April 7, 2013 at 12:27 am

Posted in Uncategorized

91 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. hi amit,

    How do you see Ashiana Housing? Do you think it is reasonably priced to enter? I think their business model is great.

    Pratul Lobo

    April 7, 2013 at 3:40 pm

  2. Dear Amit,

    Pls tell us your views about WIM PLAST.
    After the recent correction it looks like a good idea especially people like me who missed the bus earlier.

    regards,
    Shanid V H

    shanid

    April 12, 2013 at 1:11 pm

  3. Amit Arora ji:

    You should consider Jayant Agro Organics. Recently ARKEMA has agreed to buy a 25% stake in 100% subsidiary of Jayant agro Organics. ..

    India is the largest castor seed producing country in the world producing 75% of world wide production.. Jayant agro is the largest processor of castor seeds in India from 2004 till date according to Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA of India)

    Castor due to its unique properties is a well established source for green chemical and can replace CRUDE OIL in the chemical industry.. Demand exceeds supply..

    In past 5 yrs Jayant Agro has reported 463% increase in profits and 396% increase in sales..

    Consolidated Sales/NP numbers.
    March 2007 Sales 462.49Cr Net Profit: 6.76Cr
    March 2008 Sales 605.96Cr Net Profit: 9.51Cr
    March 2009 Sales 875.86Cr Net Profit 7.49Cr
    March 2010 Sales 904.01Cr Net Profit: 12.47Cr
    March 2011 Sales 1,175.26Cr Net Profit: 24.92Cr
    March 2012 Sales 1,832.26Cr Net Profit: 31.35Cr

    9 months ending Dec 2012 Sales: 1165cr, NP: 28.60Cr

    Consistent Dividend paying company since 1994 last year dividend payout was Rs 2 CMP: 93.4 Mcap: 140Cr dividend yield: 2.14% Promoter stake 64.7%
    9.23% stake held by HNI(High Networth Individuals) 4% by ITOH Oil of japan (Specialty chemical manufacturer from Japan)

    =happy investing

    What'sUp Prahalad

    April 13, 2013 at 9:36 am

  4. Dear Prahalad

    Thanks for the info, will check.

    Dear Shanid,

    I own Wim Plast. Don't see any threat from competition. All are one legged in ass-kicking competition.

    I have sold Muthoot and bought REPCO Home for long term, should compound over 20% cagr for the decade.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    April 13, 2013 at 11:51 pm

  5. Amit Arora ji:

    the other cool part is that the 999day EMA is round 101.x for jayant Agro.
    Now generally 200day EMA is considered as a year.. 999day is like 5yrs EMA..

    Right now Jayant is quoting at a price lower than 5 yrs EMA while as mentioned before its profits had increased 500% in past 5yrs period..
    —————————–
    Now profit margins are poor 1-2% but I was looking at their annual report.. a company with 1600cr export has 25.46cr export incentives.. the funny thing is export incentives have been completely skipped in the income statement using creative accounting policies.. Page 70 Annual Report March 2012

    http://www.jayantagro.com/ANNUAL%20REPORT%20JAYANT%20AGRO%202011-2012.pdf

    which means profits are actually double and company valuation is more attractive…
    ————————–
    Another development is that the company has increased its authorized capital by 25Cr
    March 2011 authorized equity capital: 14.5Cr, +3Cr preferential capital (issued 7.5cr)
    March 2012 authorized Equity Capital: 14.5Cr+3cr preferential Capital + 25Cr
    Total Authorized Equity Capital: 42.5Cr (issued capital 7.5cr)

    Now this increase in authorized equity capital was done in Sept 2011 but the march 2012 annual report still does not reflect the increase.. found the data by looking in the Ministry of corporate affairs..
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-d1RTplZ-4Ow/UOF1PAUwNsI/AAAAAAAAAhM/4sndvCcWiLo/s1600/ROC-JayantAgro.png
    ————————-
    increase in authorized equity capital means maybe a rights or bonus..soon.

    =happy investing

    What'sUp Prahalad

    April 14, 2013 at 5:34 am

  6. Ramco systems is making some smart moves, recently brought in former SAP India CEO as its core team. It is already a leader with its Aviation Suite. But to take out SAP and Oracle it requires some extraordinary skills like Sir Ravindra Jadeja…

    Jatin

    April 14, 2013 at 7:17 am

  7. Hi Amit,
    Photoquip's main business now seems to be CORVI brand LED lights. How do you view it's prospects vis-a-vis MNCs and desi majors who are already in this field? Do you think that Elinchrom is going to be a run off business at the hands of Photoquip in view of production unit operating at Switzerland as also recent topline suggests that exports are stagnating for Photoquip. Your thread-bare analysis will really help for a long term holding.

    totalview

    April 16, 2013 at 4:16 pm

  8. Hi Amit, Could you please share ur idea about Net 4 India stock ? Services similar to Go Daddy.

    Abhi

    April 18, 2013 at 4:57 am

  9. What do u suggest we do with Thangamayil

    Ashwini Damani

    April 18, 2013 at 5:26 am

  10. @Ashwini-this is probably going to sound arrogant but if this blogs write up+Falling gold prices +recent insider buying isn't equal to a compelling opportunity than nothing perhaps is.

    @ Amit
    i could not help but be intrigued by the restructuring festival of sorts going on this year with companies as diverse as wipro,jagran prakashan,hcl,eon electric etc initiating or undergoing realignment of business lines often through the demerger route.
    one such demerger has me pretty excited these day.it has virtually no earnings so far and deals with a often unpredictable 'supplier' and virtually only one financially inept 'customer'.it is part of a particularly distressed power sector.

    AMTL(advanced metering technologies ltd) a wind power producer recently demerged from eon electric seems like the perfect investigation candidate both from a balance sheet POV as well as upcoming catalysts(if you are willing to pick up the phone and trust the management/cs/finance guy i.e.)
    in brief ,
    150 crores of assets(at book value and depending on how you calculate 70 crores or 40 crores of liquid assets consisting of mf units)+HEAVY (relative to low volume) insider buying+20 year ppa with the jodhpur utility+v little fixed cost as wind is essentially a free natural resource+ a money losing electronic meters factory=a mkt cap of rs30crores?
    key risks
    1.inherent unpredictability of the weather since wind is the key input obviously
    2. the-not-getting-paid-by-the-financially-screwed-state-electricity-board…not sure how to assess this risk ..on one hand the SEB is undergoing it's second restructuring on the other the jodhhpur utility is supposedly the one with the best balance sheet as well as an obligation to source its requirement from renewable power producers

    seems like a skewed risk:reward trade to me.eager to hear your views

    p.s. sold mmfsl just before the warrant conversion for a decent 50% gain over 1.5 years ,the ceo has effectively retired and a new guy has come along to restructure the businesses
    -i see you've not find any real 'dog' (defined as a stock atleast 50% down from it's multi year highs or its intrinsic value ) in the recent
    market carnage meeting your requirements …hi(low?) 5 and wish you luck.

    SPACED OUT GUY!

    April 18, 2013 at 7:58 pm

  11. Hi Amit,

    Though i accept the fact that Thangamayil is slated to do 30% CAGR for the next 3-4 years,dont you think that the bad time has started for it since gold is going down and is expected to be so in the next 1-2 yrs resulting in huge inventory losses?. If i am correct these guys are highely susceptible to gold price fluctuations unlike Titan/TBZ who follow the 100% gold lease concept. Given the huge debt on its books and the high interest costs coupled with inventory losses i strongly believe this one will underperform for the next 2-3 quarters. Infact i expect it to post marginal loss instead of profits for atleast a quarter or two.

    Eagerly waiting for your comments and disclosure of your position on this ( any sell recently after the runup and before the correction ).

    Thanks in advance.

    Sandeep

    April 19, 2013 at 2:13 am

  12. Hi Amit,

    Are you looking at de nora india?

    Pratul Lobo

    April 19, 2013 at 1:22 pm

  13. Hi Guys,

    – Thangamayil – yes couple of bad quarters are possible but I will buy into the weakness

    – Dog stocks: Gulshan is a dog, will share more. Nobody bought Relaxo @ 28 Rs for a decade until 2009, not NESCO @ 14 Rs until 2004 for a decade. So I agree that we need to buy DOGS rather than ASIAN PAINTS and ITC even though these are consistently compounding @ 20%

    – De Nora India: Change in Chlor-Alkali membrane technology will require less frequent demand for recoating so past glory is lost. However, capital work business, which is lumpy may grow.

    Amit Arora

    April 21, 2013 at 1:28 am

  14. Hi Amit,
    I am dying for your valuable insight comments on Photoquip, may be unfounded issues !

    totalview

    April 21, 2013 at 4:48 am

  15. This came in newspapers also. But I feel it's quite an old matter almost 7 years old. And much water has flown down the river Ganges since then. GPL has undergone so many changes both in volume and has successfuly churned out atleast 28 quarterly performances with consistency. Consolidation of promoters' holding and share price pattern oozes confidence on the counter.

    totalview

    April 21, 2013 at 5:02 am

  16. Hi mate,

    I don't know anything else other than what you know. I have conviction and see no issues other than dividend sharing with minority. Domestic demand in India is growing @ 25%, so even if exports slow, domestic demand will take up. Market share is over 75%. These type of concept companies don't move for years and test patience, eg. La Opala stayed at 19 Rs for 10 years from 2000 – 2009. etc etc

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    April 21, 2013 at 5:21 am

  17. While the entire Indian auto scenario is in dire straits following constraints in the economy, Atul Auto Limited a major three wheeler manufacturer in the country has recorded significant sales during the past month.

    http://www.rushlane.com/atul-auto-limited-march-2013-1273591.html

    Amit Arora

    April 21, 2013 at 6:20 am

  18. Hi Amit,
    Can u have a look at PNB Gilts? FY2012-13 Book Value and all liquid assets above Rs.47 per share ! Available around Rs.27 ! Expected dividend above 15% ! Prospects of merger with parent PNB, has been in the air for the last three years !!!Can it be a part of core holding and as a defensive stock?

    totalview

    April 22, 2013 at 3:39 pm

  19. Hi Amit,
    Zylog's GDR issue opened today. Hopefully it should ease the liquidity issue of the company !

    totalview

    April 23, 2013 at 4:21 am

  20. Hi Amit,

    what are your views about Singer India. As this out from list of sick companies under BIFR

    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-03-12/news/37651147_1_stock-rallies-bifr-statutory-dues

    Shashi

    April 23, 2013 at 8:58 am

  21. Hi Amit,

    Vikas WSP is making new lows. Is this a good buying opportunity? Please advise.

    Regards,
    Raj.

    Raj

    April 23, 2013 at 9:20 am

  22. Hello Amit,

    what you think about net 4 india?. Quite a decline recently. Is it good buy for long term? Will appreciate your views.

    abhi

    April 23, 2013 at 5:48 pm

  23. Hi Amit,

    Wanted to know your views on D-Link India. Debt free company which has reported ~75% growth in PAT in FY13. with the internet boom in India forthcoming, wouldn't D-link play a major role in providing networking solutions along with CISCO(which sadly is unlisted in India)?

    Would appreciate your thoughts.

    Regards,

    Pratul

    Pratul Lobo

    May 4, 2013 at 1:15 pm

  24. Dear Pratul

    One is unlikely to create long term wealth with these type of stocks. D-Link is not even mentioned in top 15 companies for North America in Wireless Lan market.

    http://www.onefabric.net/edge/InfoTech_WLAN_Report.pdf

    In middle segment, they had 20% market share few years back. Good to be a contractor/employee in these companies but not an investor. They are in hyper competitive industry with very low margins.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    May 5, 2013 at 12:16 am

  25. Just wanted a clarification on Gulshan polyol, I see it has cash in bank @ Rs. 25.2 crore and the equity base of .844 crore sharea. So effectively you are getting the company free for approx Rs. 30/- per share (25.2/.844). Kindly correct me if I am wrong in the calculation.

    Regards,
    Pratul

    Pratul Lobo

    May 6, 2013 at 4:23 pm

  26. There is an interesting pattern in India where processed food companies instead of naturally earning more profits are destroying themselves predictably with size. Eg: Kohinoor Foods, DFM Foods

    http://money.rediff.com/companies/DFM-Foods-Ltd/11120026/results-quarter

    Amit Arora

    May 8, 2013 at 8:06 am

  27. Hi Amit,

    Any idea why promoters stake is going down in Zylog??

    Sep12= 42%
    Dec12= 34%
    Mar13= 21%

    Regards,
    Jatin

    JK

    May 8, 2013 at 6:26 pm

  28. probably because promoter's pledged share sold in open market?

    mystics

    May 8, 2013 at 8:58 pm

  29. Hey Mystics

    You’re from the UK right ?

    Found two extraordinary companies there couple of days back with ROE 30-40%.

    London Security, market leader in Europe for fire safety. And Nichols Plc blowing the pants of Coca Cola type of stocks in rate of return. Check returns over past five years. https://www.google.com/finance?q=LON%3ANICL&client=fss&ei=p-aKUYDTDoihkAWaWQ
    Let me know what you think about the latter’s soft drink brands. First one is like a Berkshire type of subsidiary and likely to be around another 100-200 years

    Regards

    Amit

    Amit Arora

    May 9, 2013 at 12:04 am

  30. Hi Amit,

    Yes I am currently residing in UK.

    In terms of brand recognisation, they do not stand very tall, Having said that, they do have few brands which are known like Vimto, Weight Watchers, Ben Shaw.

    In UK, on an average a single person consumes 235 litres of soft drink, out of which 23.5 litres is “still and juice drinks”, a segment nichols cater to. There is a growing trend in this segment from the last 5 years but it can grow so much.

    Even today when I go to Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury majority of the drink shelf is dominated/ruled by Coca Cola/Pepsi with hardly any recognition or visibility of other brands and the reason is offcourse Coca cola has a market share of around 28% in UK which says a lot.

    Talking about certainty, I know my great great grand kids will drink Coca Cola (though I would prefer if they don't, I hate it) but I am not so sure about Nichols.

    Social effect – now that you have mentioned it in your blog, I will try it atleast once🙂

    As always it's entertaining reading your blogs and replies.

    Regards,
    Shadab.

    mystics

    May 9, 2013 at 9:32 am

  31. Thanks for sharing the knowledge and information Shadab

    I agree we can't predict the move to energy drinks or other soft drinks over long term.

    London Security plc. founded in 1897 is the one I meant it going to be around for 100+ years

    http://www.londonsecurity.org/about_subsidiaries.php

    Q&A with Charlie Munger:

    Q
    If you were starting out with a small amount of capital, where would you focus?
    A
    I wouldn’t go where the big boys have to be, trying to decide whether Merck’s pipeline is better than Pfizer’s. I’d go where there are market inefficiencies and your work could lead to knowing important things that other people didn’t.

    Q
    Does Warren E. Buffet prefers durable competitive advantage to Graham-style investing becauseit’s a better model, or because it works better for large amounts of capital?
    A
    If I were young and had a small amount to invest, I would be looking in the small-cap world.

    Source:
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/108785929/The-Best-of-Charlie-Munger-1994-2011

    I think for us it is great to learn from Buffet but bad to invest in Berkshire or Coca Cola, just check the returns they generated over past 10 years and future hope is not better than 10% per annum either.
    Regards

    Amit Arora

    May 9, 2013 at 10:22 am

  32. Hi Amit,

    I am with you on this for a simple reason, the kind of growth that I would expect out of my investment would never be attained by a company with huge market cap. No denying they were outperformer in the past but it is difficult to sustain once you are a big gun.

    So in short I would never park my money in BRK or Coca Cola though I am all respect for Mr. Buffet.

    I am sure you must have heard of Richard Zeckhauser. You may find this an interesting read if you have not already read it. http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/InvestinginUnknownandUnknowable.pdf

    If only we manage to find just one or two in this life, it would suffice.

    Thanks for sharing so much knowledge.

    Regards,
    Shadab.

    mystics

    May 9, 2013 at 12:57 pm

  33. Hi Amit,

    Do you think Shriram Transport Company can qualify as an investment on the anticipation of bank license. It's like heads I win a lot and tails I don't loose much.

    GOI is going to declare the companies name who will be awarded license on July 1st. I personally consider today's was a good move by Mr. Ajay Piramal (PEL) to aquire 10% stake in the company. Offcourse I agree it's unknown territory but would want to know what do you make of all of it?

    Regards,
    Shadab.

    mystics

    May 10, 2013 at 10:58 am

  34. why not buy Piramal enterprises instead?

    sidhartha

    May 11, 2013 at 4:48 am

  35. Amit,

    Read about SHRIRAM ASSET MANAGEMENT CO.LTD in your blog couple of months back.

    Below is the announcement today on BSE, any opinion?

    Vivro Financial Services Pvt Ltd (“Manager to the Open Offer”) has submitted to BSE a Copy of Public Announcement (“PA”) regarding Open Offer (“Offer”) to the shareholders Shriram Asset Management Company Ltd (“Target Company) for acquisition up to 15,60,000 (Fifteen Lakhs Sixty Thousand) fully paid up equity shares of Rs. 10/- each, representing 26% of the Issued Subscribed Paid up Equity Share Capital having Voting Rights of the Target Company by Shriram Credit Company Ltd (“Acquirer”) pursuant to and in accordance with Regulation 3(1) and Regulation 4 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations 2011, as amended (“SEBI (SAST) Regulations”).

    Regards
    Sid

    sidhartha

    May 11, 2013 at 5:54 am

  36. Hi Sid,

    The company belongs to a respectable group and since 2012 been led by person who has built successful companies. Something may happen but will take couple of years.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    May 11, 2013 at 8:29 am

  37. hi Amit,

    Had read your comments on manappuram some months ago. Is it still a good proposition after these disastrous results?
    Whats your take?

    regards,
    kapil

    MSKAPIL

    May 16, 2013 at 4:13 pm

  38. Hi Amit,
    Would be very happy if you can comment upon fresh investment in Manapurram Finance !!! It has been your favourite !!! Can it be a multi-bagger from here?

    totalview

    May 17, 2013 at 5:10 am

  39. Hi AMIT,

    What's happening with INFINITE ? Do you still hold ?

    Regards,
    Vikas

    Veerendra Gowda

    May 17, 2013 at 8:43 am

  40. Hi Amit…

    Anything cooking in infinite??? Not able to understand this fall.. management has slightly missed their forecast due to forex loss and the result is 20% down. Unable to understand the market and especially these smallcaps.. 30.7 eps and 93 share price for a growing IT company with high promoter holding,dividend yield and no pledging ..

    Mads

    May 17, 2013 at 8:56 am

  41. Infinite down 20% post good results and dividend. Any corporate governance issues?

    Raj

    May 17, 2013 at 8:58 am

  42. Have not been following but looks great to me and should turn into a buyer

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    May 17, 2013 at 9:24 am

  43. Just had a look, 26 million $ of USD hedge below 50 Rs may / likely to generate more forex losses in 2013-14.

    Should make decent money in 2 years. 9 Rs dividend @ 90 Rs per share and interest rates going south. Who cares about Corp. Governance ?

    Amit Arora

    May 17, 2013 at 9:31 am

  44. Thanks for bringing it into notice. Turned buyer

    Amit Arora

    May 17, 2013 at 9:47 am

  45. Thought you are tracking Infinite, In the last post you mentioned you were buying Infinite Computers.

    chaitanya

    May 17, 2013 at 11:53 am

  46. Amit..

    Infinite has projected for low growth in revenues and infact degrowth in profits by 15% for FY14.As they are going to take a hit of 12 million$ on their P&L account for FY14 which they are planning to invest for the future. How would you read this?? is this a correct move by the company. Cant they stop giving the current dividend,take some debt and use the available cash flows to make this investment??

    Mads

    May 17, 2013 at 1:10 pm

  47. Not a big fan of crisil report. still attaching the latest on infinite for referecnce -http://crisil.com/pdf/capitalmarket/ier-reports/CRISIL-Research_ier-report-infinite_Q4FY13fc.pdf

    sidhartha

    May 17, 2013 at 3:42 pm

  48. We can't pipe dream about stopping dividends and telling them what to do. Someone managing 5000 employees knows their business. Revenue growth of 15%+ per annum, zero debt, 10% dividend yield has superb prospects for a 30%+ compounding in two-three years.

    There is no mention of de-growth in profits. Only margin contraction. It has occured in 3 out of past 5 years too. Even if there is, its okay. Revenues are growing.

    We should not be worrying about the fancy jargon of dividends EPS margins. We should concern ourselves with forecasting future size of the company 3-5 years forwards.

    Amit Arora

    May 18, 2013 at 12:48 am

  49. CMD Zutshi has been very smart and, ab initio,he has taken a defensive posture on current year's working and profitability !!! Difficult to maintain dividend at last year's level !

    totalview

    May 18, 2013 at 2:50 pm

  50. Hi Amit..

    What is your opinion on these scripts…. Can Astral,CERA grow at 25% CAGR for next 5 yrs??

    Mads

    May 19, 2013 at 4:29 am

  51. With the gold prices heading southwards, what is your take on gold financing companies i.e.Muthoot Finance, Manappuram, etc.?

    totalview

    May 19, 2013 at 7:56 am

  52. Hi Amit,
    I wanted your help in knowing about what software can be used to manange a equity partnership scheme. I dont have much experience, but me and 2 of my friends want to pool money together to invest. I was thinking in line of how mutual fund manage with nav and units, but could not find good software to do it conveniently.

    sanjay

    May 25, 2013 at 5:59 am

  53. Yeah 28 Crores cash on market cap of 48 crores. IMFL should also pick up gradually.

    Infinite Buyback.

    http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=AA65C99D-C7C0-41CC-980A-EE7875C3F259&flag=C&type=A&scrip_CD=533154

    Amit Arora

    May 28, 2013 at 8:05 am

  54. Hi Amit,

    How do you view the recent GDR issue and Annual Financial Results 2013 of Zylog? Is it a hold or we can add some more?

    totalview

    May 30, 2013 at 10:32 am

  55. HI Amit,

    Whats your take on Zylog, now that the results are out

    Hardtoget

    May 30, 2013 at 12:56 pm

  56. Cravatex has reported 44% jump in profit against q4fy12. (standalone numbers). How do u see the results?

    Pratul Lobo

    May 30, 2013 at 3:50 pm

  57. http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=d1f67b31-bb99-4f02-8fb0-2e0a8ea2eec3

    Photoquip March quarter and Annual Results are out ! How do you read it?

    totalview

    May 31, 2013 at 2:50 am

  58. I am personally against adding Zylog, I am booking loss in Zylog because of non-payment of dividend and non-transfer of money for September dividend. Other companies have posted poor q4 results like photoquip or vikas wsp but there is no swerve in conviction.

    Prefer Bajaj Finance, Cera, Repco Home, Can Fin Home, Dewan Housing. Lowering my expectations to 20%+ from 30%+ growth.

    Amit Arora

    May 31, 2013 at 9:35 am

  59. I wrote to you earlier also on Ricoh India(a subsidiary of Ricoh, Japan). Now they have published quarterly and annual results ! Results are mind- boggling ! Sales are growth @ 40%+ CAGR for the last three years ! FY2013-14 turnover target is Rs.1000 crores !!! March quarter PBT is 27% !!!! Merits a look !!

    totalview

    May 31, 2013 at 12:00 pm

  60. Brother, the Management will continue to inflate costs including cost of raw material and salaries as we small investors hardly ask them about it. The basic trick is to keep stock price as low as possible, even if that means artificially jacking up the costs of goods or salaries and show a loss. Expect this game of keeping prices low to continue for quite long time. And they have got the Auditors eating out of their hands.

    Seven

    May 31, 2013 at 8:30 pm

  61. The Photoquip Management is clear about their policy – keep stock prices low as long as possible !

    Seven

    May 31, 2013 at 8:34 pm

  62. Yes Brother

    I did have a look in 2011 at “unwilling partner” (delisting). They are Zero profit making globally.

    One time gain definitely possible.

    Cheers

    Amit Arora

    May 31, 2013 at 9:13 pm

  63. Seven (mind reader), not saying anything, just smiling.

    Amit Arora

    May 31, 2013 at 9:24 pm

  64. In fact the plan to report an audited loss didnt actually come from the Soni's. It came from the BSE operators after SEBI introduced the new trading rule of hourly expiry of non-executed orders. The operators came back to the Soni's and surrendered that they can't fetch anymore shares for Soni's under the new rule. Price manipulation to keep stock price low became difficult for the operators. Hence the decision to jack up costs and salaries disproportionately and there by depress the price and accumulate more at that price. Owners Soni's are master manipulators and they know only themselves. So any small investor hoping that somehow prices will go up and he will make lots of money from Photoquip , is being very, very naive !

    Seven

    June 1, 2013 at 10:14 am

  65. Nice to see you mentioning Dewan Housing in the same breadth as Bajaj finance & Can Fin. why is the market so scared with its older association with HDIL. The results have been pretty phenomenal…

    sidhartha

    June 2, 2013 at 3:51 am

  66. I have been proven wrong too (Zylog), right too (RS Software, Atul Auto) and unproven too. But Home Loans as a business is rock solid for long term compounding. Its even better than FMCG business. Only business with 30-50 PE multiple. I can see people buying 10-50 Crore houses in 30 years from now. Dewan Housing has corp. governance overhang but given 5Rs+ increasing dividend, it can be overlooked. Look how Indiabulls got re-rated. I feel one can't put too much money in Banks because of size of their derivative positions. They can all go to Zero. Not so for NBFCs. At the same time we can't allocate 20% in a single finance company as opposed to a Unilever or Dabur.

    Amit Arora

    June 2, 2013 at 5:55 am

  67. Dear Amit, u might be right on zylog as a fund manager point.. but i prefer to think like an amateur.

    Pradeep Kumar

    June 2, 2013 at 9:08 am

  68. The only way to encounter the Soni's is to beat them in their own game. Soni's want to frustrate the small shareholders by drepressing the stock price for so long that smaller shareholders sell the stocks in frustration at whatever price. Soni's in the meantime will manage their earnings, not thru dividends, but thru hiked up salaries and raw materials Purchsse kick-backs. Some of these hiked salary money and raw materials kick-back also is ploughed back into the stock market to buy more shares.
    The only way small investors can counter the Soni's is by not surrendering their holdings.

    Seven

    June 3, 2013 at 2:09 pm

  69. Dear Amit,
    What derivative positions are you talking about in banks? And what are your views on LIC Housing Finance?

    Rahul Agrawal

    June 4, 2013 at 10:37 am

  70. This may be another Maruti Suzuki🙂

    totalview

    June 4, 2013 at 1:07 pm

  71. On the back of an artificial Q1 loss that is audited by the 'eating out of Soni's hands' Auditor Mayank Shah Auditors, the BSE operator SHRAKS are back in the game of buying Photoquip shares at dirt cheap Rs 31, but some small investor is check mating Soni's in their own game, by offering 1 share at Rs 49; there by frustrating the Soni's in their own game. But then be prepared that Soni's are Master Manipulators, they may report even higher loss in Q2 and take home even upto 5 crores as salaries or some such drastic dirty game. Make no mistakes, Soni's are master manipulators and they know only themselves

    Seven

    June 5, 2013 at 9:44 am

  72. No doubt Soni's are master manipulators !!! One has to scan and analyse last ten years' shareholding pattern to get to know their mindset. They have openly played in the stock market in their own share. Definitely intentions are not good. Least I can say is that they have never allowed retail shareholders to profit by true reflection of market price of Photoquip ! They are present 24 X 7 X 365 in the market and that too to ensure that share market operations are carried as per their suitability but definitely no shoot-up !!!! Since 1979,in my 34 years of active share market career/operations/experience, I have never seen such master manipulators !!!! No doubt, many players have played and manipulated the markets including big-wigs but not all the time !!! In fact, Photoquip can be a classic Case Study for management students including SEBI-guys !!!!!

    totalview

    June 6, 2013 at 12:00 pm

  73. Total view, you can see that last one week after results are out the operator SHARKS are in BSE counter to buy 10,000 and 20,000 shares everyday but at Rs 31. They are slowly bringing down the price – you sell me 200 shares @ 35 today and tomorrow I sell you back those 200 to you @ 33. This way price comes down to 30.
    Soni's are a rogue owners who just won't play by the rules of BSE or SEBI. If SEBI comes into the picture, Soni's would rather shut down the whole plants and offices than accept SEBI's rules.
    Next quarter Soni's may even post a Zero top line turnover. In the meantime, Soni's will continue to take home lumpsum money through the route of 'raw materials purchase' bribes and increase salaries.

    Seven

    June 8, 2013 at 8:35 am

  74. In a small company where hardly any retail or even institutional interests is there, it is very difficult to make money. My argument is that even if the company starts performing exceptionally well , promoters' will ensure that nothing is shared with minority shareholders and in frustration retail gets sold out !!! I am reasonably sure that intentions of promoters are really evil designed. They are worse than Abhey Oswal, Singhania's of LML and many more !!!! Best strategy will be, atleast for those holding, not to sell a single share in the market and be a buyer above promoters' bids to frustrate their attempts. Floating stock in the market is very limited and not available for sale !!!

    totalview

    June 8, 2013 at 12:49 pm

  75. Jacob Barnett says instead of being a student of the field, “become the field”

    http://tedxteen.com/talks/tedxteen-2012/111-jacob-barnett-forget-what-you-know

    Amit Arora

    June 9, 2013 at 4:45 am

  76. Sir, any updates on Thangamayil? Amazing expansion – 14 to 30 branches now. Casting its web.

    bengup

    June 9, 2013 at 5:14 am

  77. First of all nobody deserves to be called a Sir.

    In my opinion it is extremely attractive. Nobody saw Gold going down, if so, when, hence the one-time-hit. No competition for Thangamayil in its country.

    Amit Arora

    June 9, 2013 at 6:10 am

  78. Amit..

    What's your say on Titan's gold on lease Business model now. How it would be impacted on its expansion plans.. i believe that they will have to fund for their gold purchases with bank credit which will dent their profitability.

    Mads

    June 11, 2013 at 1:15 pm

  79. That means losses in some quarters on Hedging, and profits in other quarters. Business should be as it is in long run with added cost of borrowing money are higher rates.

    My friend says this, and I have nothing further to add:

    More than profitability, growth will be affected. And Titan already on high end of valuations, upsited is capped. There will be overhang of RBI.

    Our govt.and RBI are totally socialist. They want to decide what citizens should do with their money. But in long run, it is not going to work. Duty and other restriction will encourage smuggling. And finally,they will lose revenue, realize it and reduce duty and other restrictions.

    They don't want to fix Air India, BSNL, MTNL etc. but go after Voda, IBM, Bharti and gold.
    —————————————————

    RBI is really are beginning to hate gold, might be good for long term for India.

    Amit Arora

    June 12, 2013 at 6:42 am

  80. Hi Amit..

    Out of curiosity,I am unable to understand market's behaviour towards LANCO,GVK,IVRCL etc.. they are available at less than 2008 lows. But they are much bigger in terms of revenue and less their profitability got impacted a lot due to various issues and high debt. My question is whether a lanco or GVK can survive this current situation and can create wealth to its shareholders in the long run after the policy changes and once operational leverage comes into picture. Or they will be washed out completely ???

    Mads

    June 13, 2013 at 2:15 am

  81. Hi Amit,

    What is your view on MCX?. Do you think it can be bought at CMP?

    Regards,
    Shadab.

    mystics

    June 13, 2013 at 10:49 am

  82. Best Brands by most powerful companies

    http://seeker401.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/original.jpg

    Amit Arora

    June 14, 2013 at 10:22 am

  83. Hi Brother

    MCX is extremely attractive in my opinion.

    You are on to the right one. Makes perfect sense to buy when others are acting as cave men. Business model is outstanding, so is dividend yield, cash flow, market share and growth prospects.

    Gold policy and price/volume effect on MCX. Its hard to find big companies attractively priced like this. Herding helps small investors.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    June 15, 2013 at 1:16 am

  84. Looking back after 2 years in retro at this 25 year prediction between JK Bank and Jubilant, the results have just begun to show:

    http://multibaggersindia.blogspot.in/2011/07/expensive.html

    Dart throwing monkey/efficient markets ?

    Amit Arora

    June 15, 2013 at 2:19 am

  85. insiders selling -http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Multi_Commodity_Exchange_of_India_Ltd_170613_SAST1.pdf

    sidhartha

    June 17, 2013 at 3:56 pm


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: