Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

World Changing Ideas

with 8 comments

An idea can change the world, its true. Sneak a glance into amazing work that Intellectual Ventures (www.intellectualventures.com)is undertaking. Nothing short of an amazing company. This is the springboard for positive black swans.

 One of TED.com talks from Nathan, founding member of IV follows

 http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf

 Most of the technologies take off soon after they become ridiculously cheap. Adrian Slywotzky calls it Value Migration. You have to look around for cheap solutions that work, polio vaccines, cellphone etc. Prevention is better than cure, nay far cheaper than cure. Eg. cancer, tornado. Tornado especially is a storm without an “off”  switch. Came across a really powerful and cheap idea to prevent tornado/twister from creation in first place.

While no one can tell which of these technologies will end up establishing biggest industries around them. I would venture for a long bet, by 2040, few things are pretty certain, days of petroleum industry are limited, currently  Exxon Mobil at #2 spot, #1 in 2009, and Chevron at #3 spot in Fortune 500 list would not be in top 50. Biggest industries would be the one we have not even anticipated. Rate of change is accelerating.

Written by amitdipsite

March 31, 2011 at 8:21 am

Posted in Uncategorized

8 Responses

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  1. Dear Amit, thanks for sharing this wonderful TED talk to us. It’s awesome. Its time, We must innovate to solve our problems like vaccination keeping and malaria prevention as mentioned in talk. Rather we are busy in making this world more complex. We are busy with making mass destruction weapon whether it is war (nuclear-hydrogen-bio) or finance (derivatives/more complex products and making economy synonymous to exchanges).
    The moment I saw malaria topic I become more interested in talk, the reason is I belongs to a remote place in India which is a tribal area and even after 6 decades of Independence, still no trains runs in that district. Every year lots of people die of malaria or suffer from it.
    I became too tensed and worried while staying there, only 5-6 hours of electricity in that village since almost 15-20 years so you cannot sleep in night and then Mosquito and so malaria. I feel helpless. I can recall I used to drink water of river of my village and now its drainage.
    Water management n harvesting is really issue in my Village too: See the ancient wisdom @http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/anupam_mishra_the_ancient_ingenuity_of_water_harvesting.html

    Why we are not thinking into root causes? When we will turn back to fundamentals?

    Wish and Hope, we will not become late here.

    Thanks Again, Amit. And yes, you are indicating right. Buffet says “We want to Investment forever”, is it possible now? Can I be invested in a company for next 10-20-30 years? Can I be sure whether those will exists?, no!!

    Rahul Kumar Paliwal

    April 1, 2011 at 7:14 pm

  2. Amit

    Notwithstanding what is in this video, I would look into Natahn's company being called a 'patent troll' by many. I have been involved in tech companies, and being a troll is not a positive for the world.

    'Bade mian'

    April 2, 2011 at 10:43 am

  3. Could be yet another case of a good idea being stretched too far.

    On a positive side,they do encourage and have created marketplace for inventors. By paying millions back to budding inventors in their garages / small labs, who otherwise may not be in a position to extract money from MNCs by suing on their behalf, from the likes of CISCO and HP.

    On negative they are pocketing billions for themselves in the process. There may need to be regulation on revenue sharing between original inventor (they represent thousands of independent inventors now). In this case its possible that Intellectual Ventures may be acting as a proxy stock exchange for inventions and is charging 40% commission on each buy and sell order.

    Amit Arora

    April 2, 2011 at 11:04 pm

  4. Dear Rahul,

    Thanks for sharing your experiences and that link, very educational and practical.

    We are not taught about society, how to live, how world can be better at school, at least I was not taught by our teachers hence the complete failure of political organisation, of which I am not a complete expert. Teachers or Principals are blind and I hardly have respect for anyone, as they are stuck in working-for-a-living profession. So are politicians. Don't expect any solutions to come from them.

    Solutions will come from human ingenuity and individuals and from ordinary people. There is some progress happening on that front now, where different breed of schools are coming up than those that teach CBSE/AISSCE syllabus. It may take time, and hopefully the wealth we create from stock market can one day support that🙂

    Let me tell you couple of interesting facts:

    A British Surgeon, Chamberlain was proficient in delivery of difficult children, using a secret instrument called Forceps. He invented it in 1660s and this remained hidden for the next 150 years, except in his family, who made enough money for next few generations.

    Result: Loss of millions of human lives. I might not myself be alive today as I was born using forceps. Most of us would not be alive today if not for drugs invented for malaria, typhoid.

    Similarly there has been secrecy in almost every sphere including religion, and that information/knowledge gets eventually lost amongst population. Persistent humans with sufficient motivation re-discover them again.

    Another fact:

    I have sufficient information to believe that we have several alternative sources of energy. While no hot shot of theoretical physics, I am certain that even before 1960s we have access to energy systems like Anti Gravity or Zero Point Energy, which can make air travel from New Delhi to New York at a cost of less than 1000 Rs in 2011 prices and less than 60 seconds. But due to military secrecy we continue to use petrol engine based bullock cart method of travel invented in early 20th century.

    I am betting that other brilliant people funded through private initiatives will re-invent these systems again within our lifetime.

    Buffett:

    He very well knows about life of an organisation. He may not know about the latest advancements happening and the acceleration of this pace. He know that less than 5% Top 100 organisation survive a century. He chooses organisations with least change possible, then re-invests profits from these organisations into others with bright prospects for the next few decades. While the original organisation may die, it will give birth to even bigger one. Eg: Money invested from Blue Chip Stamps went to build See's Candy, See's Candy helped him rake in another billion $. Blue Chip is dead now.

    Its possible that life of a typical gigantic organisation will reduce to an even smaller scale of 20-30 years over the next couple decades.

    Why does Buffett use those words “forever” ?

    While he has not told me nor have I read in public domain. But here is my explanation. Buffett is in the business of attracting family businesses besides those listed on exchange. He does not want to tread on the ego's of those families. He would not sell a family business he acquires for a handsome or even 10X profit. This is his unique proposition which no Hedge Fund ( read Pimp) promises. He is willing to run businesses even if they are downsizing and not expected to grow indefinitely. That is his promise to families from whom he has bought business. This is the reason he uses the words “forever” and “museum” and in a way he pays the cost of it and honours his words.

    Regards

    Amit

    Amit Arora

    April 2, 2011 at 11:15 pm

  5. Hello Amit,
    My question is not pertaining to the ideas/inventions being discussed here. Can you read following link and let other non-finance people understand the implications of what would happen to LLP companies formed with intention of trading in stocks and shares on long term basis. Does it mean the LLP now will not be able to avoid long term capital gain tax and will have to pay it in other forms like Minimum Alternate Tax. Dividend Distribution Tax and/or Surcharge.

    Regards,
    Amar
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/taxation-and-accounts/article1591498.ece?homepage=true

    Amar

    April 3, 2011 at 5:36 am

  6. Hi Amar,

    A CA should be able to answer this better than me. If MAT is applicable on *all* LLPs and there is no distinction between them, then it would not make sense to hold shares under an LLP for Long Term as LTCG can be avoided by an individual but not Pvt. Ltd or now LLP.

    Whether there would be a distinction or not between various types of LLPs, remains to be seen.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    April 3, 2011 at 6:37 am

  7. Hi Amit,

    Whats your take on relaxo and jbf at the current levels??.. i feel market is under estimating both.. thanks

    kittu

    April 10, 2011 at 8:01 pm

  8. Hi there,

    I find Relaxo to be decent company but don't have much idea on JBF. I feel the market is under estimating the whole lot of small micro caps. Blind people pay for what they can touch in absence of vision.

    Regards

    Amit Arora

    April 11, 2011 at 3:55 am


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