Ahead of the Curve, Book by Hilary Kramer
I did not like the book. I found it full of self trumpeting, ‘mayic illusions’ and ‘look at me now’ fallacies that women are more prone to than men, and tiny bets on 100s of stocks. Failures are not mentioned, only success is broadcast. She could grow money to only 10 million $ calling it wildly successful career, while she earned a couple million $ from salary alone. She lacks conviction and follows other successful investors. Wharton MBA by the way.
We can still pick up a few noteworthy points from her book.
Her style is spotting trend, surfing wave. Important in spotting trend like biotech, nanotech, alternative energy etc is that most of the time is spent in spotting trend, being one with nature, being news junkie and not in surfing wave.
A reference to a game “Six Degrees of Making Bacon”, every one in world is six connections away from most remote person. Similary a stock trend in one industry impact other industries. Corn industry impacted by Ethanol trend can be played not only through corn but by fertilzer, agri equipment and other crops that corn is outcrowding.
Keep looking back for reflecting and learning, not for regretting.
Dont forget Phychology 101
We all want to live long. In future there will be new industries, products, implants, surgeries that would claim to increase your life span or look young. That would be perpetual trend. Think clothes, creams, organic foods. Males have bigger ego, cars that cater to those ego like BMW are riding those trends. An example is provided of Honda Civic vs Jaguar having equally comfortable seats, but Jaguar caresses male pride.
Distinguish FAD from Trend
Atkins diet craze to get trim did not survive.
Trends are based on consumer needs and lifestyle changes. Trends are mainstream as well.
Fads appear in one industry and do not cross over or all states in all countries. Bellbottom pants is another example.
Demand and Supply never go out of fashion
That sounds credible both in trend based and cyclical industries. Failure of TiVO and Vonage affirms the fact that technology companies can be perilous where supply can quickly surpass demand. I had considered this in 2009 but rejected, recently D-Link is recommended by well a known ‘expert’ in India, think over, can it grow 20% per annum for next 5 years or even 3 years ?
Demand for organic foods led to success of Whole Foods from nowhere to a 9 billion $ company. Trend for low carb diet does not impact scrumptious cakes and bread despite being starchy eg. Panera bread.