Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

Dr. Fauci convinces Buffett to Sell

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6wjij-0yEQ

Buffett, “I feel extraordinarily good about being able to listen to Dr Fauci whom I had never heard of a year ago. … I do feel that I owe a huge debt of gratitude to Dr. Fauci for educating and informing me.”

Dr. Fauci, IMO is the most pessimistic person in the world. So here is a cartoon dedicated to him.

dr fauci-cartoon

Written by amitdipsite

May 25, 2020 at 5:29 pm

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Dr. Fauci – very incompetent

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In this link he says, he is “excited” and “cautiously optimistic”

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/moderna-stock-price-gains-after-positive-dr-fauci-vaccine-comments-2020-5-1029227174

In this link he says, “no promise”, “no guarantees” there may NOT be any vaccine in 18 months from now

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-fauci-is-still-confident-us-could-have-a-coronavirus-vaccine-by-december.html

In this link he says if the economy is close for too long it will be “irreparably damaged”, “permanently damaged”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-anthony-fauci-says-staying-closed-for-too-long-could-cause-irreparable-damage.html

In this link he says, “economy faces serious consequences if they open too quickly”

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/12/politics/anthony-fauci-congress-hearing/index.html

I have to agree with Trump, who despite having made wrong calls initially on the pandemic, that Dr. Fauci wants to play both sides and win under any scenario and outcome. I have to say Dr. Fauci is highly incompetent in guiding the nation.

Dr. Carlos del Rio, an Emory University professor of medicine seems so much level headed and tuned in and much better in assessing the situation. In fact Dr. Carlos adds that a vaccine that is 40% efficacious would be enough as 20% people would already be having antibodies naturally by 2021. With 60% antibodies, humans will have herd immunity.

His video here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/moderna-vaccine-researcher-it-mind-boggling-to-be-done-in-2020.html

So, what is Dr. Fauci saying, there is no guarantee that there will be *ANY* vaccine in 18 months. He is also pitching to keep the economy closed and to let it be irreparably destroyed.

I may know 1/100th of medical science aspects but bet there will be more than 2 vaccines which will be more than 60% efficacious other than Moderna vaccine in 18 months.

Written by amitdipsite

May 23, 2020 at 4:04 pm

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Only one trade

with 5 comments

In my opinion, there is no short side trade now and no point reading digging more news flow.

Whilst opinions are plentiful, worries weigh a mountain, on the facts side:

  • Vaccine that is 70% plus effective is good enough to stop the Pandemic. I see Moderna as much more effective than 70%
  • NZ, Australia, Korea, HK don’t even need the vaccine, they are on the way to curb virus in the next few weeks/months without vaccine
  • Airlines, Transport, House Builders, Banks are the most damaged sectors (40% down at the index level) as opposed to Nasdaq (up YTD), S&P and DOW

 

There could be even more good news from Johnson and Johnson, Pfizer, Novavax, Oxford Vaccine. Which I am willing to not even count. There could be FOMO. There could be short squeeze.

The only trade is long and better even leveraged.

0% rates and central banks have got your back.

I would much prefer betting 2x or 3x Index industry specific ETFs at this stage than individual names like $TPOR (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TPOR?p=TPOR&.tsrc=fin-srch), $FAS $BNKU, $NAIL which are over 80% down.

You can put the fingers in your ears and go la la la la la…. and ignore the noise for any distractions to the contrary.

Another day, another disease, another virus maybe…this one is taken care of and buried, the rest are logistics. Markets should trend on the upside for weeks/months to come. There may be darkness in the corporate results¬† for few quarters but light shineth.

Written by amitdipsite

May 19, 2020 at 11:37 am

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We have a Vaccine

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Moderna Stock is up 30% today, 300% this year. After listening to the interview today I feel that this vaccine has much much more than 70% efficacy (which as per Bill Gates too is required to stop the pandemic). 95% efficacy will be great.

The vaccine works in the age group with hardest to build immunity, 60+ years age group. Its in Phase 1, meanings its been injected in 10s of people (45 in this case). Vaccine needs to undergo Phase 2 (100s of people) and Phase 3 (1000s of people).

Here is now getting back to the normal.  It may be 6-12 months before the whole world gets it. Mind you, there are more than 50 companies working on vaccines and COVID-19 will be a distant memory in 2022. For the first time in months I feel optimistic about investing stocks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html

Written by amitdipsite

May 18, 2020 at 5:58 pm

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18/05/2020 – News

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Written by amitdipsite

May 18, 2020 at 2:11 pm

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17/05/2020 News

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3 Trillion USD HEROES ACT (sounds like Universal Basic Income)

Google Antitrust Lawsuit coming (Opinion: Govt could consider a 70% corporate tax on a near monopoly controlling 85%+ market share, rather than breaking a monopoly. It’s beneficial to have a monopoly of infrastructure like Water and Electricity but ability to switch the electricity service provider within days as in most developed markets. Just is number portability on cellular network. Definition of Market Share will be the point of contention. Google will say it’s a Data Organisation Company and not an Online Ad Company which it is. At any rate Chinese Internet companies are under no such state obligation and investigation for the decades to come). Internet, Software will take a long time to get regulated. All of us may be in the grave.

US Industrial Production drops 11.2% – Highest in 101 Years

US Ill Equipped for a Cold War with China

None from USA or India

Air Travel rebound

Written by amitdipsite

May 17, 2020 at 6:24 am

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BRK exits JP Morgan and Goldman after airlines

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Goldman dumped 84% and JP Morgan only 3% but you should read that as both dumped 100%

Written by amitdipsite

May 16, 2020 at 8:11 pm

Posted in Uncategorized