Views on Life & on Equity Investing

Wonder, Wealth & Abundance

2015 Talk on Epidemics

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Written by amitdipsite

March 28, 2020 at 8:46 am

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NYC Leaders who failed

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Written by amitdipsite

March 27, 2020 at 3:29 pm

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How China and HK are able to control

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11 weeks of lockdown and multitude of cultural habits since 2003 SARS

Written by amitdipsite

March 26, 2020 at 7:45 pm

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Bill Gates on the dynamics of Covid19

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Written by amitdipsite

March 26, 2020 at 6:50 pm

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Are good times back?

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I don’t think most people are designed to run a marathon which is what COVID-19 will end up being.  Unscientific, superstitious, cult and bordering on madness pastors like these give religion a bad name which is why COVID-19 will carry on for months. He says, “God will save us”. Why not jump from a cliff and see if God saves you? The experiment will be done in 5 seconds.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/louisiana-pastor-defies-coronavirus-order-draws-over-1-000-people-n1168501

Its hard to say when the subsequent waves will hit but confinement will need to be prolonged for the rest of 99% who do not have an immunity as long we have mad people like above, who continue to flout with impunity.

To me it looks like 12 months is the time we need to run this race till vaccine resolves it for the major part. Meanwhile you can already see US getting impatient and ready to pile up body bags to keep the economic engine revving. 2 Trillion sounds like a lot but the stimulus is 5 weeks of US GDP for context.

To me this market is ripe for trading rather than investment.

Written by amitdipsite

March 26, 2020 at 7:26 am

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Mera Bharat Mahaan

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Written by amitdipsite

March 24, 2020 at 12:18 pm

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Mortality Rate – Bad News

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There was one Good News – about the Survival Duration of the COVID-19 which I thought was weeks/months but turned out, after research, to be 72 hours or less depending on the surface.

The bad news is about Mortality Rate, which I was under the impression as 1% but so far the numbers suggest its higher.

Spanish Flu [2] – 3 to 20%

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world’s population at the time.The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.

Black Death – 13th / 14th Century.[1]  – 50% mortality rate

The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe’s population. In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century. It took 200 years for Europe’s population to recover to its previous level, and some regions (such as Florence) only recovered by the 19th century.

COVID19 – 2 to 10%

Total Cases: 381,000

Deaths: 16,500

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

3. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Written by amitdipsite

March 24, 2020 at 11:18 am

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